FOREX MARKET WRAP: 31st July

Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to go through the Forex Market Wrap. We’re going to see what’s happening for the end of the month and the week.
So, this is the end of the month. Usually, we do get a couple of impulsive moves towards the end of the month. The US session hasn’t quite begun just yet. We could still see those moves, but I want to cover what we were focusing on for the week and how those have panned out.
For instance, GBP/JPY was a chart that we were looking to buy, which has hit four targets. Now, there’s a nice one to two per cent return for us through there. That’s helped us with a couple of losses from last week. So, that’s a really good move through here. GBP/JPY is still on the cards for the one to buy this week. I like the idea of buying this alongside GB Pound with that bit of GB Pound strength, and we’ve seen that impulse nicely come through here.
Kiwi was also a big one that we wanted to be a seller of NZD/CHF. We’re still in this one nearly two full targets here as well. We are letting this one play out. There’s no rush to close this one or do anything to it. You may want to bring stops above these highs if you’re going to reduce some risk on that. But ultimately, we’re looking for that Kiwi downside, and we can see on the weekly timeframe that we continue to get that, which is brilliant. I mean, we had a bit of a spike up in Kiwi strength yesterday, but even if we look at the daily timeframe on NZD/USD, as soon as that opened, we had a short spike up, but the rest of the day has just been pretty much bearish for Kiwi in general. I like the fact that the markets are consolidating up here on NZD/USD.
But go to that weekly timeframe, you can see we started to see a low range in the candle at this resistance zone, which is brilliant, this is what we want to see for that Kiwi weakness going into next week. So, I’m still going to be focusing on that. It’s obviously going to lose a little bit on the strength and weakness table because EUR/NZD has pushed higher, as we anticipated. We’ve got GBP/NZD, which also rallied higher, changed in simplicity. So, Kiwi is going to be very vulnerable going into next week. Especially against some of the slightly weaker currencies.
NZD/CAD did break above these highs but looked to be a bit of a false breakout. This wasn’t my favourite chart, to be honest. I did want to see some continuation here before we got short and CAD’s been a little bit weak as well. So, that’s why we’re getting this consolidation, and as I said, I like to trade trends, and there’s no trend here at the moment – it’s just consolidation. There’s no point in getting involved with that market.
NZD/CHF was one of my favourites because it was in a little bit of a trend. Even that four-hour timeframe was doing pretty well with the market making lower highs and lower lows quite nicely through here, which was great. So, looking for the market to come down into that 6030, a one-to-one that we were looking. So, we’re really expecting that continuation there.
NZD/JPY hasn’t quite made the cut for us because looking at the daily timeframe; we can see that low ranging candle there which wasn’t a very definitive break out of this low, was it? That showed me away from trading this market. Still, I had a bullish day. This keeps me away, which is why I like following the daily closes because if we had broken through and closed lower, then great, I’d be continuing to sell this market. Still, because the market only gave us a low ranging candlestick, that’s not good enough for us to get involved. We’ve got that bullish candlestick there, and that’s not good enough for me to get short on Kiwi just yet.
JPY/CAD is very weak at the moment. We know that because GBP/JPY rally to target and EUR/JPY to push to the upside, which is another market I quite like, this week is going higher.
Lots of currencies start to shape up, especially NZD’s weakness, which we’ve been focusing on mainly for this week. So, that’s probably likely going to be the same going into next week.
So, I hope you’ve enjoyed the content this week. I hope it helps you with your trading. If it has, please leave a comment down below your trade of the week, let me know, and I will catch you very soon. Cheers guys. Have a good weekend.
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