In this week’s Market Outlook we take a look at the #GBPUSD, #EURUSD, #AUDUSD and more!
Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
In this video, we’re going to go through the Forex Market Outlook. We’ll take a look at a few currency pairs of interest for the week ahead.
Strengths and weakness
Starting out on our strengths and weakness table, we can see that the GB Pound is still at -5, showing us weakness.
When the market gets into these areas, I want to see either the downside continue or look for those levels where the price could potentially reverse from.
Now, the GBP/USD is pushing down nicely and coming to a previous structure point.
Aussie continued its strength as well. Last week, we saw a bit of weakness come back. That didn’t continue this week. Instead, we saw a boost to the upside. However, it is now back up +7s, showing that it’s extremely strong. But, it could also reverse again.
For me, GBP/AUD could be one of the currencies to hit a reversal this week. So, I’m going to go take a look at that if the price is at a key level.
The US Dollar lost some ground because it is in a bit of a range.
US Dollar Index
In the US Dollar Index, the price has been predominantly in a range since last week. The price went back to the key area of resistance and dropped down to the supporting zone.
The previous daily structural lows at 99 and has bounced since. So, if the market remains in this range, I’ll expect the US Dollar to come and retest the 100.35 area and the recent highs from the 15th of May.
In the four-hour timeframe, we can see that the price also changed cycle. We have a nice higher high pattern here.
If we’re expecting the market to move to the upside, we can look at minor areas of support and resistance. We have this really nice structure point at 99.57 where the price found support, support, breakthrough, and resistance. The recent breakout high is at 99.50, so this is a zone that would be ideal to look for some US Dollar long opportunities next week.
If the price remains in range, I’m expecting a retracement into the zone then a move to the upside, heading towards previous weekly highs.
It goes the same for EUR/USD. In the daily timeframe, the price remains within range. It came up to those structure highs around 109.78 or that 1.1 key psychological level.
With the price being at that structure point, we can expect to see the price continue back down into that support zone.
In the four-hour timeframe, the price changed simplicity again. Those recent structure lows are at 1.0952s.
So, if the price rallies and retraces into this zone, we could look for a selling opportunity on EUR/USD down to the 1.080 zone.
The next chart of interest is going to be GBP/USD. The GB Pound is continuing to the downside. It came up, retested these daily structure lows, then started to bounce to the downside.
We’re looking for the price to retest these previous daily swing lows at 1.2080. If the price does that and we get a reversal signal from here, we could see the GB Pound reverse to the upside.
The GB Pound is going to be a little bit tricky this week because there’s meant to be some Brexit announcement coming out this week. The EU and the UK are also meant to come up with some deal this week, so it’s going to be very interesting to see what happens.
Technically, this is what we’re looking for. But, with that fundamental uncertainty in play, we could see anything happen on the GB Pound. Just be aware of that when you’re trading. Look for lower risk opportunities. But if the price comes to these lows and bounces, then we are looking for potential reversal opportunities.
We can see that the Aussie is continuing the uptrend. The price is still stalling, the impulses are not catching on as they did back in April. It’s starting to slow down its momentum now.
I’m looking for potential short opportunities on Aussie into these structure lows at 6400.
In the four-hour timeframe, the four-hour structure has now been broken. The market started to form lower lows and lower highs.
If the price pulls back up to 6550, you could look for a short opportunity on Aussie down because it’s at that extreme area. And being at +7, the AUD/USD is breaking lower. We can expect to see short positions coming in around this zone. If we look left, you can see that the market found resistance, resistance, and support recently.
The final chart I’m going to take a look at is the GBP/AUD because it’s the major reversal currency for me. It’s either going to continue this overall downtrend or we’re going to see those reversals coming into play.
We can see that the market looks a bit overextended because of where the key areas of support and resistance are. The only support can really seize back in November 2019, so it’s not at a point of interest for reversals or setups.
However, if I was looking at this in the structure play and I was looking for short opportunities, then I’d want the price to retrace back to the 1.9 level.
That could give us a trading opportunity if the market changes this four-hour simplicity. If the price double bottoms, breaks through the structure, retraces, retests, then heads up towards that 1.9 level, that’s something we could look at for GBP/AUD next week.
Be careful with Brexit talks going on. It may be good to just stay away from it. But, just watch how the price action goes or you could always trade at a lower risk. The predominant trend is down, so you want to look for a complete reversal of the four-hour trend before getting involved.
I hope you enjoyed this week’s video update. If you did, please like and subscribe to the YouTube channel for more trading content. I’ll speak to you next week. Cheers!
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