Is the NZDUSD trend about to turn?
In this video, we discuss why the trend could change and the key levels to be aware of.
Watch the video to learn more…
Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to take a look at NZD/USD. This one was on our radar because of the US Dollar’s potential to start gaining some strength. We looked at the strength and weakness chart for the week, and we identified the fact that the US Dollar was at significant lows on the scale. It was extremely weak. We’ve seen that follow through at the start of the week. Now, we’re coming towards the end of the week, and we’re starting to see a little bit of US Dollar strength re-entering the markets.
Kiwi, I’ve kept on the list as a potential reversal with this yellow zone, in here, because it was previously at plus six. It dropped to plus two, then gained a little bit last week, which suggested that the move probably wasn’t over yet and that we were going to see that extension as we explained in the Forex Market Outlook video. But, I’m looking for the US Dollar to start gaining some places now and we can see on the charts that the prices came up into that level that we were anticipating, which is this area over here. If you haven’t seen the Forex Market Outlook video, what we were looking for was that within this block of candles here, the point of control of that move or the most traded level within that area is 7276. So, that is where the institutions did their businesses in the market – they pushed prices lower.
Now, the prices came back into this area. I expect those sellers to defend their level, and I expect the price to drop back down into the next supporting points, which could be down here, around 6747. And if the price does get back down there, we can look for potential opportunities. At the moment, we have the price at this resistance level.
We also have the Commitment Of Trader signal still looking for short opportunities. And with the price being up at this level, I’m expecting some price action.
If we look at the daily timeframe, we can still see that the price is in an uptrend. We’re still making higher highs and higher lows. The price has now come into this area. I’m not expecting a massive sell-off to the downside, but I will be looking for the market to start making lower lows again, and the previous structure low rests around here. We can see that it has found resistance and support recently. And if the price were to change cycle and break below this low, this would be an area, around 7150, where I’d like to look to short the market. However, if the price moves down to the previous structure highs, rallies, rejects and gives us some double-top pattern in here, then I’ll be looking for the market to break that 0.72 area, retest that and continue to the downside. The important thing is that we need to see the market change trend. We could start looking at the lower timeframes and look for changes in trend, here.
But at the moment, the market hasn’t formed that yet. We’ve still got this market making higher highs and higher lows. We’re retesting this structure at the moment, and we could still bounce to the upside before breaking any lower. I want to keep an eye on this daily, and if we do start taking out these key areas of lows, around about 7150, that would be good to start looking for shorts.
I hope you enjoyed this video update, and I’ll speak to you soon.
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Is the NZDUSD trend about to turn?