EURUSD has failed to break lower but has our bias changed?
The major forex pair has stalled with the USD battling for strength. However is the bearish bias still correct?
Watch the video to learn more…
Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, head currency analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to take a look at EUR/USD. We’re going to give a little bit of an update on the recent analysis that we’ve done. Has anything technically changed here for us on EUR/USD? Well, actually no.
The only thing that’s happened is that the market is still in this retracement phase. If we look at the overall cycles of the market we have this nice lower-low pattern, lower-high pattern. Now we’re looking for that lower high to come into play for another impulse to the downside. We haven’t seen that follow through yet.
One thing that we want to see is that four-hour change in cycle. We’ve been talking about this for so long now that we’re waiting for that breakdown. We need to see that breakdown now in order to get short.
Because we tried to short it a couple of times through here, and unfortunately got stopped. Looking for that market to now cement that position in terms of looking for that four-hour change in trend.
But at the moment, technically in the higher time frame on that daily time frame, nothing has changed for us because the previous structure high is up here. In order for the market to change the trend, I would need to see a break above that high in order to even think about price continuing to push to the upside.
At the moment, we still have this nice lower low, lower high pattern. Still expecting the market to at least retest this 1.16. If we can break further down looking for 1.14 and then come into play, which is just around through here.
Still looking for that downside, but what do we need to see again. I’m going to just hammer home. I want to see that four-hour change in trend.
Let’s get rid of the indicators for now. What we can see here or what are we looking for and why we look for this, it’s just that when that impulse then happens, we’re more than likely going to see some trend changes.
If we actually look at this and say to ourselves, well, what’s going on? We can see that the market made a higher high here, rallied again, higher high, rallied again higher high.
Looking at this the lows are around this area here. We can see that the market formed a low here and here. That to me is suggesting that we need to see this level broken, and closed below in order to get short.
The price has come into this area, and we’ve had a really strong bullish response from this level. This 1.17 area is a sticking point for this market at the moment.
If I place a level at 1.17, always going to treat this as sort of a zone, we might even obviously have to look for a little bit higher up. Maybe actually call in 1.17250s.
Around this area, the market is stuck at, but it’s more of a zone here. The market finds resistance, support, support, support, support again.
I need to see this market break into some new lows, even to consider starting to get short on this just because I want to look for that Dollar strength to come through.
But if the technicals aren’t lining up then, we can’t take that bias anymore because what we want to see is that happening. Over here for instance, when the market did start making lower-lows and lower-highs we can see that we started impulse to the downside.
If I just jumped up into a daily time frame here. That’s when we started to have that lower high situation. This is what we want to try it off the back of that impulse move through here.
If I just looked at the retracement phase, and if I make the retracement phase a different color–let’s say it’s red–go into that four-hour time frame. On that retracement phase through here, we can see that price makes a new high. We’re making lower lows, makes a new high here, and then the price works within that. It doesn’t change trend. When it changes trend, that’s when we get the impulse to the downside.
At the moment, we’ve got higher highs, higher lows. What do we need to see, a change in trend? Then we can look for the impulse again. EUR/USD is still very much on the radar. In terms of looking if anything has changed in terms of the daily outlook? It hasn’t. There’s just a couple of sticking points that price is finding it hard to push through at the moment. Once those are taken out, then we can start going very aggressive on short opportunities on EUR/USD.
I’m gonna leave it there. I hope you enjoyed the video if you did give it a thumbs up. Thanks for watching, speak to you soon.
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