FOREX MARKET WRAP: 4th September

Hi guys, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head currency analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to the Forex Market Wrap. We’re going to see how the markets fair this week and what currencies coming out on top.
The US Dollar has performed slightly well. So, we can see that the size is slightly well because it’s performed better against a couple of other currencies, and we’ve looked to try and take advantage of a bit of US Dollar strength this week.
NFP numbers recently have just come out. So, average hourly earnings were up. The unemployment rate was down, and the job numbers were up as well. So, all positives on an NFP front, which is causing the US Dollar to have a slight rally today, and that has helped our EUR/USD position currently.
So, we were looking for the EUR/USD to continue to push down this week – looking for this market to close bearish, to cement the idea that possibly EUR/USD could be pulling back on a weekly phase.
What I mean by that is I want to see the daily to start making lower lows and lower highs. So if we start seeing something like this, then we’re going to have a nice potential downtrend, if we do get a couple of closes below this low.
I was expecting this to happen this week or at least by now. However, the market has continued within this sort of channel that the market is currently in.
So if I draw that out a little bit more neatly, we can see we’ve got a bit of a channel, which kind of starts from here and here, the market’s just kind of consolidating within that.
What we’re looking for, really, if we want to continue to look to buy the US Dollar and sell the EUR/USD is the market to start pushing lower and making lower lows.
We haven’t quite had that. But, it’s still looking positive for us at the moment. That week is looking quite bearish as well. We may get another rally up before seeing that drop continue. But hopefully, we do get that push towards these lows and a breakout if these lows in order for us to continue looking for that Dollar buying.
The GB Pound was nicely affected as well – nice reversal set up here. The price pulling back into these key-structure points here as well. So you know, we’re looking for this to either bounce, form a double top and break to the downside or at least come to these structure lows going into next week.
Once again, we’re going to have a bit of a weekly bearish candlestick at these highs. Looking left at that 1.33 area as well or 1.34, we seem to be rejecting. So again, looking for a bit of downside here on GB Pound, I’m starting to see that US Dollar strength comes through.
USD/CHF was one that we like the look of that’s in profit at the moment – just starting to push to the upside. I do like this market because, obviously, it’s a bit of the inverse to EUR/USD as well.
We can see the low range in candles here – the market is showing indecision at these lows. We’re in that oversold condition as well on the RSI on the weekly, which suggests that we could get a pullback in these key-areas – happy to hold this one. This one’s looking pretty good as well for that US Dollar buying opportunity.
Aussie Dollar again, very much similar. We’re just looking for that AU Dollar strength, and we can see a nice weekly bearish candle coming into play once again. You know, I want to see some daily changes in trend at the moment.
The trend is very much still up. We’re coming back, we’re retesting these structures here. Is the market going to rally, retest, and then drop? Or are we going to continue to fall to the downside and maybe re-test these lows first?
That’s the question we need to ask ourselves. But you know US Dollar buying is still looking pretty good against weaker currencies. So you can see USD/CAD as well, also triggered, looking for that reversal set up. Because if we look at the weekly at these lows, once again, it’s in that oversold condition – starting to get that bullish week. This is suggesting that if we do see that buying coming back in could we get a retest of these lows here. Maybe that 133 could be something that we look for on USD/CAD. And you know, if we go to that daily time-frame, it’s just starting to have a nice bullish rejection here. Four-hour has changed the trend, which is only an early sign that price could be moving in our favour.
So, I want to see this market trend back to the upside on a reversal basis at the moment. So, really, just looking for the US Dollar to continue to gain some strength – looking for that to follow through into next week.
We’ll have a look in our Market Outlook whether the US Dollar has continued to gain that little bit of strength or if there are any other currencies that are a little bit weaker at the moment that we could look to take advantage of and go from there.
So, I hope you enjoyed the content this week. Thanks for watching, and I’ll speak to you soon.
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