The #ForexMarketWrap is here!
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Today, I’m going to take you through the Forex Market Wrap.
Non-Farm Payroll Data
I’m going to start with the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. It was poorer than anticipated. The jobs number did increase from 278,000 to 559,000 jobs. However, the average hourly earnings fell. It was predicted to be worse than expected, but it did fall. This means that the jobs created were of lower value to the economy and that there is less money flowing into the economy.
The US NFP data disappointed USD buyers. The jobs created did increase but the average hourly wages decreased, suggesting that the jobs created were of lower value. This saw the USD sell-off and put doubts in the minds of buyers.
It’s not good for the economy, so traders prefer to see average hourly earnings increase. There was also disappointment when jobs created did not reach 600,000.
US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index started off well this week. We ended up having a bullish move after retesting some swing lows. The last three candlesticks suggested that the market was more likely to move higher. We didn’t achieve the price close above the major high, around the 9040-9042 area.
If the price closed above again, that would have confirmed the USD strength. But, the NFP threw in a spanner in the works, so we’ll have to see how Monday opens. We could anticipate USD strength and see the market rally higher. However, the price is just ranging, so we could just see it move down.
The USD Index failed to break and sustain above the daily highs. This suggests that sellers were still active at these prices. If the buyers take control of this market, we need to see a rally above these highs.
Moving on to EUR, we’re getting a bearish weekly close. Again, we’re expecting a pullback in this market. However, it is failing to close below the low. We wanted to see two closes below the 121.31 level but we didn’t get that. Instead, we had a rejection and a false breakout.
I also wanted to see the price break to the downside, then pull back in. That would have confirmed the USD strength for short opportunities. Until that happens, we may see further upside with the price retesting the structure highs at 120.250.
The EUR/USD prices failed to sustain below the lows, if we are to short this market, we need to see a significant close below these lows. Otherwise, the trend will likely continue higher.
Moving on to Aussie, it is a bit disappointing. I wanted to be a seller this week, especially if the price closed below 0.77, which we did get. We saw a huge move the day before the USD gained some strength.
Aussie suffered off the back of that. It closed below this zone, which was a nice thing to see. However, the USD is swinging back and forth at the moment, driving the price higher.
The AUD/USD also failed to stay below the major 0.7700 level. The retail traders added long positions before the price broke lower, giving us an opportunity to short the market. However, the NFP data had other ideas for the pair. Now, the price is back above the zone, where we could see the trend continue higher.
The weekly timeframe is looking bullish with this rejection weekly close. We could say that the price will likely head back towards the highs. But, we’ll have to wait and see with regards to the 7857 area.
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