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In this week’s Forex Market Wrap, we’ll go through some charts that we outlined in the Forex Market Outlook.
EUR/USD
We spoke about the potential for an upside to the EUR/USD. We also needed to look for the US Dollar strength in line with the May seasonal period. It just so happened that we are about to tap into that zone.
Now, the US Dollar bullishness is coming through to the market. I’d like to see a change in trend in EUR/USD. We’re either going to see a break of daily lows, which currently sits at 1.2055, or we could see a market pattern.
If we form a head and shoulders pattern and see a breakout to the downside, then that would be an opportunity to start buying the US Dollar against the EUR.
EUR USD rallied towards the supply zone initially pointed out in the Forex Market Outlook recently. We are expecting USD strength due to the seasonal analysis. If the USD strength comes through in May, then we should expect to see the current daily lows being broken.
GBP/USD
In our official Telegram channel last night, we talked about the potential GBP/USD short. None of the other Blueberry Jams ended up triggering this week. The only one that did was GBP/USD, and it’s moving nicely towards our overall targets.
We had 1.4 as the key level, which was acting as a big barrier for GB Pound. We were also expecting a lower high to come in at some point.
Yesterday’s candlestick closed bearish since it was a long wick to the upside, which closed back within the previous candlestick range.
That’s a really good sign that we’re going to see a reversal in the markets. And we’re starting to see that now. If the price can break below these lows, then I expect further downside to the previous swing lows, around 1.37.
GBP/USD was on our watchlist to form a lower high this week after the price rejected the 1.4000 level.
In the recent Blueberry Jam, we discussed the possibility of GBP/USD moving lower due to the daily candle close. The candle closed back within the previous candle’s range and formed a long wick, highlighting the reversal. Again, if the USD strengthens, then we are likely to see a break lower especially as the GBP is typically the worst performing currency during May.
That’s what I’m expecting from the GB Pound. The GB Pound predominantly is the worst-performing currency during May, so we’re definitely looking to short GBP/USD.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD didn’t perform the way we expected. We were looking for the price to break out to the upside, but that didn’t happen. In the end, the price came back within the previous consolidation zone.
I want to see the price break down some more before we look at anything to short in the AU Dollar. We would need to see a break below 0.77 before we look for shorting opportunities with this pair.
AUD/USD remained range-bound again this week as the AU Dollar and USD battled for strength. The CPI data out of Australia this week was the worst in history, so the currency could weaken further. This, combined with the USD strength could push prices below the key lows at 0.7700.
NZD/USD
We identified this major supply zone at 73334 but that didn’t come into play. Instead, the one that we spoke about on the four-hour timeframe did.
Although it broke through a bit, it came back quite quickly and held here. Now that we are starting to see lower lows and lower highs, we could see a continuation of this week. It’s very similar to EUR because we may be seeing a head and shoulders pattern on the daily timeframe.
NZD/USD is also showing signs of a change in trend after reacting from the supply zone. This could offer short opportunities next week. The daily timeframe could form a head and shoulders pattern, adding confluence to a reversal.
So, if the price pulls back to the 7238 level, I’d expect some shorts to come back as well.
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