Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
In this video, we’re going to go through the Forex Market Wrap. We’re going to highlight some key levels that have been broken or tested this week just a general feedback on the market for the week.
It has been a weird week, another ranging week. We haven’t had any trends defined, been bouncing back between a few levels. It’s been an extremely tricky week for trading again. Hopefully, in July, the markets will start picking up. But essentially, we’ve been in a range this week.
If we go down into the US Dollar Index’s daily timeframe, we can see that early in the week, the market started to press to the downside, retested in this key low, around 96.45, after it rejected this zone. Once again, we started pushing back to the upside, and the US Dollar looks to be finishing strong at the end of the week, or we could expect, maybe, that continuation up into those previous structure lows.
From a weekly perspective, it doesn’t look too great. Sellers are still evident in the market, still looking to push that US Dollar down. But I’m looking for the market to start rallying to the upside towards the end of this month.
What we’ll do in the Forex Market Outlook video is we’ll go and take a look at those seasonal patterns; see if there’s anything of interest for us heading to the end of June, the start of July.
EUR/USD, another one just bouncing around. I haven’t found any trade direction on EUR/USD. The market is struggling to move to the downside, but we did have a nice little rally. I expected that rally to continue, maybe up into that 1.14. Again, we haven’t seen the market project back to the downside and start to push lower. Perhaps we’ll get a retest of these key structure lows in here, once again. But, the market is finding that 1.12 area as an area of support at the moment.
So, we need to see that either taken out or the market rally back to the upside, giving us a trend to work with. At the moment, we don’t have anything to go off of here.
The GB Pound was one of the charts of the week that I like for shorts. The markets are playing out nicely to the downside. I like short opportunities this week, but we didn’t get many opportunities.
We did point out one opportunity on the four-hour timeframe that came a little bit shy of our entry. But if you did manage to catch any trending trade there, that was an ideal trade this week. And, this was one of the markets that are trending since the market is forming lower lows and lower highs. We have to anticipate that this trend will continue if it continues and surpasses these lows. If we break out of this low, then we have the same opportunity. We wait for the pullback then we wait for the continuation trade down into these key swing lows here.
So, the GB Pound is the chart of the week along with EUR/JPY. We were very keen on watching EUR/JPY. EUR/JPY hasn’t set up for us. Unfortunately, we didn’t take any positions on here this week.
We were expecting a downside because like the GB Pound, it was in a little bit of a downtrend. It was retesting previous structure lows, but because the US Dollar is in range, the market hasn’t gone anywhere, it’s stuck around.
I was expecting the stocks to decline a little bit as well, which would have given a bit of pressure to EUR/JPY, as in JP Yen buying. But again, it didn’t follow through. We can’t do anything here yet. We were waiting for, maybe, a little bit of a breakdown, but it’s closing bullish on the week. Not great for short opportunities. But as long as that daily trend remains to the downside, we need to be looking out for those shorts. If it doesn’t occur, then I expect a breakout of this high, and then we’ll probably head back towards that 123.50. We’ll see how the strength and weakness chart plays out in the Forex Market Outlook on Monday.
We are going to the other charts of interest now. Aussie, for instance, is starting to push back to the downside. Again, it’s very much in a ranging market. No real clear direction here. We want to sell Aussie because of the strength and weakness table. Again, if it’s following through, we’ve got to be patient with these markets. We need to start seeing those trends develop for those high-quality trading opportunities.
Another one that’s range-bound; it’s not the one that we’re first to buy.
USD/CAD, I’m a little bit disappointed in USD/CAD. We had a negative result here. We were buying on this retracement move, here. Unfortunately, the market swept the lows, there. Taking our stops, probably many of the stops as well before rallying back to the upside.
The four-hour trend did change, we did get a retest of this structure looking left, but we didn’t get a retest of this structure highs here, unfortunately. But if you were trading USD/CAD long, you had some good trend trading opportunities there, especially if you were looking at the 15-minute timeframe at these key areas of support and resistance for those trend trading opportunities.
USD/CAD is pushing back up into these key lows that we pointed out a while back. Now, it just depends whether the market will continue to push the press down from there. If we look at the weekly timeframe, we will continue to form some resistance; or is the market going to rally and test these weekly lows here? That’s going to be the next point of interest on USD/CAD. What is the market going to do next? I’m going to wait and see how it reacts from here. It may surpass these highs, find some resistance and then push down from there. But again, I’m going to wait and sit around on that one.
Unfortunately, we got stopped. But again, the trend didn’t change. The market was in that uptrend. It was struggling to break through those lows and these highs. It then became a bit range-bound, bounced, came back down, bounced, and now, we’ve finally seen that upside play out.
A bit unfortunate with this one, but the analysis remained intact. So, if you did get on the back of it, then well done.
Other markets of interest, I’m super interested in a couple of XAU. It’s interesting because we swept these highs here or broke out the highs. It’s approaching this daily structure here. Is the market going to bounce? Or are we going to see a continued breakdown in XAU? If the market does push back into here, double-bottoms on a four-hour, it could be good for long opportunities up to $1800. It’s looking good for some potential opportunities next week on XAU.
In other markets as well, if we take a look at the Stock Markets. DAX, in particular, the market that I enjoy trading. It gave us a bit of a ranging market this week but looking negative on the weekly. Is this going to be a lower high? That’s going to be super interesting to find out. If we do get that breakdown, here, I think stocks will be on the way down into those previous structure lows again.
So, really interesting markets are setting up at the moment; a lot of ranging markets. It’s our job to go out there, find those trending markets. At the moment, the only trending market I see is the GB Pound and USD/CAD. Is that going to follow through any further? We’ll have to wait and find out going into next week.
Another chart of interest was the GB Pound chart: GBP/JPY started to breakdown on that four-hour timeframe as well. We’re starting to get that change in simplicity. Again, it could be the one to watch next week.
I hope you enjoyed the analysis this week. I hope it helped you with your trading. Please like and subscribe to the YouTube channel, and I will catch you next week. Have a good weekend.
Apply what you learned from this forex market wrap in your future trades with the GBP/JPY, USD/CAD and EUR/JPY currency pairs. The good news is you can test your trading strategy risk-free. Signup for a free Blueberry Markets demo account by clicking here.