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Is #EURUSD short still valid?
This is the question we answer in today’s video update.
The USD has weakened but has the trend changed?
Watch the video to learn more…
Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
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In this video, we will take a look at EUR/USD as the price has approached the key level of interest as we spoke about in the Forex Market Outlook.
We saw earlier this week that the price had reacted to an area that we were looking to continue the short opportunities from. The price broke through the 1.2158 level and, this is what we said, if the price were to break down here, form this double top pattern and complete the double top pattern, we’d look for potential short opportunities if the price were to get back to the level.
I’ve done a little bit more volume analysis, and we can see an extra added level that I’m interested in. It’s around this level, here, at 1.2175. The reason we’re in this double top area is that this was the most traded level within that. I’m looking for the price to either come up there, reject, and change cycles or I could be looking for it to do it right now. Because this is where the price will be identified as a high level of interest. It was key support over here, a little bit of resistance here and here, and support turned resistance. Can we now continue to see this move to the downside?
I still like EUR short opportunities, in general. So, I want to see how the price reacts to this area.
I’m going down into the 30-minute timeframe. There’s a timeframe I like to look for changes in cycle. What I mean by change-in-cycle is any double top pattern. So, if we were to see the price reject this level, comeback, and then change and move into a new lower low. That would be ideal for me to then look for continued shorting opportunities. If that doesn’t happen and the price continues up, we can ignore this level. This level is not useful to us in the short-term. However, we could then see the price head up towards 1.2175, and I’ll look for the same conditions again. So, if the market would form either a double top or any change-in-cycle where the market forms a new lower low, I’d be happily looking for short opportunities.
I had this factor that if the market continues to trend to the upside, then the idea is invalid and there’s no reason to get short around this area, here. You may have to change your opinion of the price at that point. Well, you can see the price is starting to breach this level slightly.
But, it’s still the early days; We’ll see how we get here. If the price does breach these two levels and continues to the upside then takes out this high, here, the next resistance sits at 1.2218. We could then switch our bias and look for the market to head up into this other high volume level where we support, turn, resistance. It could be a good area to look for targets to the upside if we were to see that the US Dollar slightly soften as we see at the moment.
But, I still like the EUR/USD downside. Look for those changes in cycles. If we don’t get it and breach this high here, look for the potential trade to head up towards 1.2218.
Thanks for watching, and I’ll speak to you soon.
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