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Sherman and Marian McClellan created the McClellan oscillator to analyze market breadth and assess the underlying strength of stock market trends. Developed in the 1960s, the indicator slowly gained traction, and traders started using it in the stock markets to spot trend continuations and reversals.
By integrating the McClellan oscillator into a trading strategy, traders can improve their decision-making process, have better timing for entries and exits, and understand the overall market dynamics
This article will discuss how traders can use the McClellan oscillator for market breadth analysis.
What is the McClellan oscillator?
The McClellan oscillator is a market breadth indicator that helps traders understand market strength. The values are calculated based on the difference between advancing stocks/currency pairs (rising prices) and declining stocks/currency pairs (falling prices). The indicator is then derived by subtracting the 39-day EMA of this difference from the 19-day EMA.
- Positive values indicate that market is gaining momentum with more advancing currency pairs
- Negative values indicate that there is a weakening momentum in the market, with more declining currency pairs
- When a market index rises, but the oscillator falls, it signals a market divergence. This suggests a potential market reversal
How does the McClellan oscillator help analyze market breadth?
Measures net advances vs. declines
Since the calculation of the McClellan oscillator involves subtracting the long-term EMA from the short-term EMA of the net advances, it directly measures the difference between the currency pair prices moving up versus down. This suggests the overall health of the market.
Tracks market breadth momentum
Based on the oscillator’s readings, the McClellan oscillator tracks the market breadth’s momentum. This helps traders understand if the market is gaining or losing traction.
- Positive readings indicate a strong uptrend
- Negative readings suggest a strong downtrend
Identifies overbought and oversold conditions
Extreme positive or negative readings can indicate that the market is overbought or oversold, respectively, signaling potential reversal points.
- When the oscillator reaches unusually high levels, it suggests that the market is overextended and, due to a pullback, signals traders to place short orders
- When values are usually low, it indicates the market is oversold and due for a rebound, signaling traders to place long trades
Reveals divergences from price trends
Divergences occur when the McClellan oscillator moves in the opposite direction of the underlying market index. For example, if the USDX is rising while the oscillator is falling, it suggests that fewer bulls are participating in the rally, which could be a warning of a potential downtrend reversal and vice versa.
Provides early warning of trend changes
The McClellan oscillator usually turns before other market indices, making it an early warning signal of potential trend changes. If the oscillator crosses below the zero line (a level that acts as a baseline to differentiate between bullish and bearish market momentum) after a few positive readings, it indicates a shift towards a bearish trend and vice versa.
Step-wise guide to use the McClellan oscillator for market breadth
Calculate the McClellan oscillator
Start by calculating the difference between the number of advancing currency pairs and declining currency pairs on an exchange for each day.
Plot the oscillator
Plot the daily McClellan Oscillator values on a chart. The time is plotted on the x-axis, and the oscillator values on the y-axis. The chart will show how the oscillator fluctuates over time, moving above and below the zero line.
Analyze oscillator direction
Observe whether the McClellan Oscillator is moving up or down. A rising oscillator suggests bullish momentum, whereas a falling one suggests bearish momentum.
Identify overbought/oversold conditions
Look for extreme values in the oscillator, either significantly above or below the zero line. This helps traders place orders according to the anticipated market direction.
- Prices crossing the zero line indicate a bearish reversal
- Prices falling way below the zero line indicate a bullish reversal
Spot divergences
Compare the movement of the McClellan Oscillator with the overall market index, such as the Nasdaq-100. If the market index is falling but the oscillator is rising, it could signal a potential upward reversal and vice versa.
Place an order
Based on the analysis, decide whether to enter or exit a trend.
Top tips to use McClellan oscillator to trade forex
- Adjust stop-loss levels: As the McClellan oscillator moves, adjust stop-loss orders to reflect the current market momentum. This approach helps protect gains when the trend is favorable and minimizes losses if the market shifts against the position
- Integrate with economic news: Combine McClellan oscillator readings with economic news and events. For instance, if the oscillator indicates bullish conditions and positive economic news is released, it improves confidence in a long position
- Use multiple time frames: Analyze the McClellan oscillator across different time frames (such as daily, 4-hour, etc.) to gain a broader view of market trends. Confirming signals across various time frames improves the accuracy of trades
- Set alerts for key levels: Set up alerts for when the McClellan oscillator crosses critical levels, such as zero or extreme values. This allows for timely reactions to changes without the need to constantly monitor the chart
Using the McClellan oscillator in forex: the difficulty vs advantage
The McClellan oscillator provides insights into early trend warnings and identification of overbought or oversold conditions. It helps traders spot potential reversals and understand market momentum.
However, it can also produce false signals, especially in choppy or low-volume markets. It may lag behind price movements due to its heavy reliance on moving averages. To mitigate these risks, traders must use the McClellan oscillator with other indicators and economic analysis for a more comprehensive trading strategy.
Disclaimer: All material published on our website is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered personal advice or recommendation. As margin FX/CFDs are highly leveraged products, your gains and losses are magnified, and you could lose substantially more than your initial deposit. Investing in margin FX/CFDs does not give you any entitlements or rights to the underlying assets (e.g. the right to receive dividend payments). CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss.
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