OPEC and Its Influence in Oil Prices

OPEC holds immense importance in the global oil market as a result of its market dominance and collective management of production and supply. Comprising 13 member countries with significant oil reserves and production capacities, OPEC plays a vital role in influencing oil prices.

In this article, we learn everything about OPEC and how it influences oil prices.

Note: Although OPECs discussions can potentially affect oil prices, they aren't the main driving factor. Please consider all factors when making trades on oil prices.

What is OPEC?

OPEC stands for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. It is an intergovernmental organization formed in 1960 by a group of oil-producing nations (Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela) to coordinate and unify their petroleum policies.

Over time, additional countries joined the organization, including Qatar, Indonesia, Libya, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Nigeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, and Congo.

OPEC's primary objective is to ensure the stability and sustainability of global oil markets while securing fair prices for both producers and consumers. The organization achieves this by collectively managing oil production levels, setting quotas for member countries, and influencing oil prices through supply adjustments.

How does OPEC decide oil prices?

Supply

OPEC determines oil prices through its control over the global oil supply. Member countries collectively agree on production levels and quotas. OPEC regularly assesses global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and inventories to adjust production levels accordingly. By managing the supply of oil reaching the market, OPEC can influence prices. When OPEC decides to decrease oil production quotas, it reduces the global oil supply and vice versa. This can lead to an increase in oil prices due to decreased availability relative to demand.

Demand

OPEC takes into account market demand when deciding on oil prices. By monitoring global oil consumption patterns and economic indicators, OPEC gauges the level of demand for oil. Production quotas are adjusted based on demand forecasts, ensuring a balance between supply and demand to support desired price levels. If OPEC anticipates a significant increase in global oil demand, it may decide to maintain or increase production to meet the expected demand and vice versa. This can help stabilize or lower oil prices if supply matches or exceeds demand.

Derivatives reports

A derivative report refers to a document or analysis that provides information on derivative instruments (financial contracts whose value is derived from an underlying asset, such as oil, as a commodity). By analyzing derivatives reports, OPEC learns about oil market expectations, sentiment, and potential price distortions caused by speculation. This information aids in assessing future price trends, mitigating risks associated with hedging activities, and making informed decisions on production adjustments.

The USD

Although not directly deciding oil prices, the United States Dollar (USD) exchange rate can indirectly impact oil prices. As oil is predominantly traded in USD, fluctuations in the currency's value can affect the purchasing power of oil-importing countries and impact demand. This, in turn, can influence oil prices. If the USD weakens (strengthens) against other currencies, it can increase (decrease) the purchasing power of oil-importing countries. This can lead to higher (lower) demand for oil, potentially driving up (down) oil prices.

Geopolitical factors

OPEC considers geopolitical factors when determining oil prices. Political tensions, conflicts, and disruptions in oil-producing regions can impact the global oil supply. OPEC assesses these factors and adjusts production accordingly to maintain stability in the oil market and mitigate price volatility. Geopolitical tensions or conflicts in major oil-producing regions can disrupt oil supply. If OPEC member countries experience production disruptions due to geopolitical events, it can lead to a decrease in global oil supply. This reduction in supply can drive up oil prices due to concerns over availability and potential supply disruptions.

Alternative oil sources

Alternative oil like biodiesel, ethanol, and more can potentially impact the price of traditional oil in several ways. If alternative oil sources, such as renewable energy or shale oil, gain significant traction and become cost-competitive with traditional oil, they can reduce the overall demand for oil and vice versa. This decrease in demand can exert downward pressure on oil prices as consumers and industries shift towards more sustainable and economically viable alternatives.

Non-OPEC oil production

The production levels of non-OPEC countries, particularly significant oil producers like the United States, Canada, Russia, and Brazil, can affect OPEC's decision-making. Higher production from non-OPEC countries can increase the global oil supply, potentially leading to lower prices and vice versa. OPEC may adjust its production to maintain its market share and influence prices in response to non-OPEC production trends.

Global economic growth

Economic growth drives energy consumption. Periods of robust economic growth tend to increase oil demand and support higher prices. OPEC considers global economic trends and forecasts while making decisions on oil production and prices by increasing oil prices when economies are flourishing and decreasing them during times of economic crisis.

Oil inventories

The levels of oil inventories and strategic stockpiles held by countries and organizations influence oil prices. OPEC monitors global oil inventories and adjusts its production to manage market imbalances and stabilize prices. High inventory levels can put downward pressure on prices, while low inventories may lead to upward price movements.

OPEC's impact on the global economy

OPEC's control over global oil production substantially influences the global economy. By adjusting production levels, OPEC can impact oil prices, affecting industries, consumers, inflation, trade balances, and economic growth worldwide. Let us discuss how OPEC impacts the global economy -

Inflation and consumer spending: As oil prices rise or fall due to OPEC decisions, it can affect inflation rates. Higher oil prices can increase production costs and transportation expenses, leading to higher prices for goods and services. This, in turn, can impact consumer spending power and overall economic activity. Lower oil prices, on the other hand, can stimulate consumer spending by reducing costs and inflationary pressures.
Energy-dependent industries: Many industries heavily rely on oil and its by-products. OPEC decisions directly influence the cost of energy inputs for sectors like transportation, manufacturing, and agriculture. Higher oil prices can result in increased production costs, reduced profitability margins, and potentially slower economic growth in energy-dependent industries. Conversely, lower oil prices can provide cost advantages, boost profitability, and stimulate economic activity in these sectors.
Current account balance: OPEC member countries are major oil exporters. Changes in oil prices due to OPEC decisions can impact the current account balances of both oil-exporting and oil-importing nations. Oil-exporting countries typically experience increased revenue and improved current account balances when oil prices rise. In contrast, oil-importing countries may face challenges with higher import costs and trade imbalances, which can impact their current account positions negatively.
Geopolitical and regional effects: OPEC decisions can have geopolitical implications, particularly for countries heavily dependent on oil exports. Changes in oil prices resulting from OPEC actions can influence political stability, economic development, and investment prospects in oil-producing regions. Additionally, shifts in oil revenues due to OPEC decisions can affect government budgets, social programs, and infrastructure development in member countries.

Five ways in which OPEC affects global oil prices

In this section, we explore five ways OPEC's actions directly impact global oil prices. Differentiating from the broader scope of OPEC's impact on the global economy, we focus specifically on the key factors that shape oil prices worldwide.

1. Production quotas

OPEC member countries collectively agree on production quotas, which determine how much oil each country can produce and export. When OPEC decides to reduce production quotas, it effectively decreases the global oil supply. With a reduced supply relative to demand, oil prices worldwide tend to increase due to scarcity. Conversely, if OPEC raises production quotas, it increases the global oil supply, which can put downward pressure on oil prices.

2. Market confidence and expectations

When OPEC signals its commitment to stabilize oil prices by adjusting production, it instills confidence in the market, reassuring investors and influencing positive price expectations. Market participants closely follow OPEC's actions and statements to anticipate potential supply changes and adjust their trading strategies accordingly, which can contribute to price movements. An increase in supply increases investor confidence, leading to more trading in the oil market, reducing its global prices and vice versa.

3. Spare production capacity

OPEC member countries hold spare production capacity, which refers to the additional oil production that can be quickly brought online if needed. OPEC's ability to utilize and manage this spare capacity allows it to respond to global supply disruptions or imbalances. The presence of spare capacity helps OPEC maintain stability in the oil market and can influence price trends by assuring the market of its ability to respond to fluctuations in supply and demand. The spare production capacity is held if OPEC wishes to reduce supply and, in turn, increase global prices and vice versa.

4. Coordination with non-OPEC producers

OPEC also engages with non-OPEC oil-producing countries, such as Russia. These alliances, such as the OPEC+ agreement, aim to manage oil production levels and stabilize the market collectively. When OPEC collaborates with non-OPEC producers to adjust production, it can have a broader impact on global oil prices beyond the influence of OPEC alone. With mutual coordination, if OPEC and non-OPEC countries reduce production levels, the overall global oil supply decreases, which can lead to an increase in oil prices and vice versa.

5. Market sentiment and speculation

Market sentiment, driven by expectations of OPEC's actions, supply disruptions, geopolitical events, and macroeconomic factors, can influence speculative trading in oil futures and options markets. This speculation, in turn, can contribute to price movements and volatility.

Positive sentiment, driven by anticipation of OPEC's production cuts or commitment to market stability, can lead to increased oil prices. In contrast, negative sentiment regarding OPEC's actions can result in decreased prices.

Why has OPEC cut oil supply in recent years?

Saudi Arabia's voluntary cut of one million barrels a day came into effect in July 2023 to support stability and balance in the oil markets.

It followed a cut of 1.16 million barrels a day in April 2023, which was voluntarily undertaken by eight members of OPEC, and a group-wide cut of two million barrels a day in October 2022. The other oil producers within OPEC have agreed to extend their supply cuts until the end of 2024.

In 2020, the price of crude oil crashed due to a lack of buyers as countries went into lockdown. OPEC had to boost prices by cutting production dramatically - by more than nine million barrels per day. Adding to the pandemic was the Ukraine-Russia crisis, where the price of Brent crude soared to more than $130 a barrel. However, by March 2023, it had fallen back to a little above $70 a barrel - a 15-month low. Hence, OPEC has been following production cuts to bring the price back to a more normal position, around $80 per barrel.

Russia, facing global condemnation and severe economic sanctions, has already decided to indefinitely close Nord Stream 1, an underwater gas pipeline, after leaks were discovered in a section of the pipeline near the Island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea. This pipeline is used to supply 25% of the total Russian gas imports to European states. Additionally, Russia, which accounts for 40% of the natural gas supply to European Union (EU) countries, has been gradually reducing its gas supplies since the EU imposed significant economic sanctions on Moscow. This has contributed to the cut in oil the global oil supply.

**Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

This reduction in oil production could result in higher oil prices, potentially leading to increased inflation and a higher cost of living for countries that purchase oil using US dollars. The United States may continue getting affected by this production cut, which could contribute to further inflation.

Concluding the impact of OPEC on global oil prices

OPEC's influence on oil prices stems from its control over the global oil supply, coordination with non-OPEC producers, management of spare production capacity, market sentiment, and more. Its collaboration with non-OPEC producers directly impacts the global oil supply and can influence prices. Overall, OPEC's actions and decisions significantly shape the dynamics of the global oil market and have far-reaching implications for economies, industries, and consumers globally.