The yearly seasonal heatmap shows us that the bears are typically in control of #GOLD through March and the price is fastly approaching the $1700.00 support level.
So, will the commodity offer us some trend trading opportunities this week?
Watch the video to learn more…
Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to take a look at XAU as the price heads towards the $1,700 level.
Taking a look at the currency and commodity heat map, we can see XAU for the year. Looking through March, we typically see XAU fall quite significantly before a short-term rally in April. So, this suggests that we could see a downside to the XAU market. We’ve been looking at it a lot because the weekly is in this overall bearish retracement phase.
At the monthly time scale, we can almost see that it’s in a pullback with the price likely to come into some key areas of interest.
The $1,700 is a nice area for XAU. Especially after looking at these weeks that we’ve seen, last week was a strong bearish week, with the US Dollar being one of the stronger currencies.
From the daily timeframe, we can see that there’s a nice trend forming here, with the market forming lower highs and lower lows.
I’m expecting that to continue until the price hits that $1,700 level. What I’m looking for this week is for the price to pull back into some previous structure lows and continue to push lower. That’ll be an opportunity to short down to $1,700.
I’m expecting the price to pull back into the previous structure lows, that’s a nice area for a breakout as well because we thought that the market might end up continuing to the upside early on here. However, $1,700 was the overall area that was most ideal for us to look for any buying to come back in.
So, looking at that and going to the four-hour timeframe, what I would expect is when the market goes into an impulse phase, you see the four-hour making lower low and lower highs.
Now, we had quite an aggressive move last week on XAU, breaking through those lows. Ideally, I’m looking for a pullback on the daily timeframe. Low ranging candles would be nice to see, which would lead to a short-term uptrend.
In the four-hour timeframe, I’m looking for the price to hit the resistance area of the previous structure lows, where it found support numerous times, and then look for that continuation of the trend for another move lower.
That’ll be my ideal move on XAU. Keep an eye on this trend trading opportunity this week. If the price hits $1,700, then I’d wait for a similar pullback into this area. We may get one more move into that area before we see any continuation or a reversal set-up.
Keep an eye on XAU. It’s the one to watch this week, and I’ll speak to you in the next video.
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