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Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to take a look at EUR/GBP. It was one of the suggestions in our Youtube comments to have a little look-at. So let’s take a look at it, answer the questions that you may have, and then go from there.
So as asked, what is my outlook on EUR/GBP? I think GB Pound is pretty much going to strengthen this week and maybe dominate a few of the weaker markets.
Now, EUR/GBP was on our radar last week because we were getting really nice four-hour lower lows forming, which we ended up taking the position in here, on the 15-minute timeframe, pushing to the downside, and hitting our targets nicely. The prices now are pushing back to the upside.
Now what we can hear is a bit more of a daily pull back. So what I’d want to see from this market, in particular, is very similar to this pattern that we saw here.
Basically, the market was finding resistance – it moves to the downside, it pulls back, it hits minor resistance through here, which gave us that lower low, which is the reason why we wanted to short the market because we have that daily bearish candlestick. Now, the price is pulling back into these previous structure lows. I want to see if we form another daily bearish candlestick because if the market closes like it is now, that’s quite a strong bullish candlestick. I don’t want to be selling into that because we could get another daily bullish candlestick, which would make everywhere to trade in this level here. It could stop us out, for instance, if we were going to be safe and maybe traded from this area, which stops above high, there’s quite a lot of risk there, which I don’t really want.
What I want to see first when we’re looking at these markets is the bullish or bearish candlestick of support resistance levels in the trend that we desire. We want to be looking for short opportunities because the market is making lower lows and lowers highs. This was our original high but we should wait for another lower high to step in. Now, we don’t know whether it’s going to step in here or whether it’s going to rally back up into those high and step in there.
So, the key for me is to look at those daily closes. If the market closed bearish, with a bit of pin candle or any kind-of reversal candlesticks or any kind-of big bearish candlesticks like that, that would give me a little bit more information, and a little bit more of a bias to the downside.
Then, at that moment, you have to look at the market as impulses and retracements, right?
So, when the market is kind of giving you these low range candles and giving you those bullish candlesticks, you have to assume that the price is in the retracement phase.
That isn’t what we want. We want impulse phases.
Now, you’re never going to know when the market is going to turn from the retracement into the impulse. So what I’d like to do is to wait for the impulse to start and then catch the momentum on a lower time frame. So, that’s what I’m going to do exactly here. The market has the impulse, retraced, impulse getting some low range candles, followed by a bullish candlestick, which definitely shows us it’s in a retracement phase.
I don’t want to start shorting it just yet. I want to wait for that impulse move to start and then get involved with the market.
So, this video has been a little on EUR/GBP but also understanding what type of market environment you are in: Are you on an impulse? Or are you in a retracement phase? This is going to determine when you should be looking to buy the market, or hold on and wait for your opportunity.
I hope you enjoyed this video update. Thanks for watching. If you did like it, give it a thumbs up and subscribe to the YouTube channel for some more trading content. Thank you.
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