Attention will remain on tariffs this week as well as a whole heap of earnings reports from key companies including Tesla, Alphabet and Boeing. The week will kick off with China data followed by services and manufacturing PMI’s. Tokyo Core CPI y/y will be watched by traders as the JPY remains strong.

 

Forecast for April 21, 2025

 

 

 

Key events to watch includes:

Monday: China loan rates are forecast to remain unchanged, but traders have been anticipating stimulus from the PBOC, however this is unlikely as negotiations continue between China and the US. 

Tuesday: ECB President Lagarde is due to speak in an interview with CNBC, tariffs and future ECB growth could be on the cards, and comments will need to be watched intently. 

Wednesday: Manufacturing and Services PMI’s are forecast to come out of Europe, UK and the US with varying degrees of outcomes.

Thursday: US unemployment claims will take the spotlight for the day.

Friday: In Asia trading Tokyo Core CPI y/y is forecast to rise from 2.4% to 3.2%, a move above this could cause some volatility in the JPY. 

 

USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF price remains above the key support of 0.8100. Swiss Franc futures show the price breaking through the 2020 highs, but commercials are not yet selling at any kind of extreme. Traders and investors are moving capital out of the USD and into other currencies such as the Swiss Franc as interest rates remain low. The Swiss National Bank Chairman is expected to talk at the end of this week and may discuss the strength of the Swiss Franc. If the central bank chairman talks about intervention we could see USDCHF price rebound from the lows of 0.8100. However more uncertainty surrounding the trade tariffs have sparked a USD sell off, if this continues the USDCHF price could head towards 2011 lows.

 

USDJPY Outlook

This Friday Tokyo Core CPI is forecast to rise to 3.4%. If the data comes in above forecasts we could expect the Bank of Japan to remain hawkish in tone in upcoming speeches. A miss on the forecasts lower could see investors price in a chance of a hike from the BoJ coming later down the line. The USDJPY price is heading towards the support of 140.50, if the price finds support here we could see a move higher. However, a break of 140.50 could see the bears take the market lower towards 137.00.

 

CRUDE OIL Outlook

Crude Oil prices rose last week as trade tensions faded ever so slighted when China announced they will be open to negotiating with the US. However, the price is likely to remain sensitive to developments in the ongoing US and Iran nuclear negotiations. Both nations contribute to global oil supply, and when these two clash it can often cause price fluctuations. Any signs of diplomatic progress could put downward pressure on prices, as this would keep oil flowing. On the other hand an escalation of a threat of military action by the US could bring fear of supply disruption into the market, which could spike oil prices. For now the price remains in a strong downward direction but above key levels of $63.00. The resistance of $67.00 above remains the real barrier, a break above this could signal progression across multiple market narratives, whilst a hold below could influence further selling. 

 

GOLD Outlook

The price of Gold briefly touched the $3,400 per ounce on the market open as the USD fell sharply. Volatility increased again after US President Donald Trump announced some conditions to tariffs via his Truth Social platform. This may have been the reason for the USD sell off with US02Y opening lower around 3.75%. Uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the US debt crisis is pushing investors out of the US and into other assets, one of those being Gold. Any stock market sell offs will see Gold prices fall in the near term, but this could be expected to rebound quickly as central banks would likely price drops as an opportunity to buy.