FOREX MARKET WRAP: 7th August
The #Forex Market Wrap is here!
Follow the link to learn what key levels have been hit this week!
Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to go through the Forex Market Wrap. We’re going to identify those key levels and see what happened in the markets this week.
Now, not a lot has happened in terms of changes. But, what we were looking for going into this week was some US Dollar strength and we had it initially at the start of the week, but then it fell away, and we retested these lows, through here, and now it looks to be that the market is double bottoming.
If I bring in the results of the non-farm payroll, we can see that the average hourly earnings were expected to be at minus -0.5%, but it was -1.3% coming at 0.2%. So, average hourly earnings went up, which is a good thing.
US President Trump had been talking all week, or towards the end of the week about a huge job increase, which we have seen now. And the unemployment rate was down from 11.1% to 10.2%, which usually means the US Dollar is going to rally. When you usually get that order through there, the US Dollar typically does rally, and that’s exactly what we have seen now as the market has started to move higher from those lows.
We had a bit of an indecision candle yesterday, the price is now following through with that. So, what can we expect here? Now, if you want to be buyers of the US Dollar, I need to see that change in cycle form. Now, seasonality and strength and weakness both show that in August. We should be looking to buy the US Dollar. It just so happens that US Dollar news was positive as well, which adds to the catalyst or the bias of buying the US Dollar.
What I really want to see now is for the market to take this high, out here. We get a nice uptrend on the daily timeframe. Now, that has caused EUR to form a double topped pattern, which could potentially break to the downside as well. I’d like to see this low being taken out through here. So then, in order to short this market, which we spoke about again at the start of the week, we spoke about the potential for a double top pattern, which now seems to be coming to fruition. So, we’ve had to be super patient on that one.
All good news for our Kiwi. Kiwi trade is now back in profit, and I really like this setup going into next week. Looking at that weekly now, we’re probably going to get a consecutive bearish week. The daily timeframe could potentially be breaking this low in here. If it breaks this low, here, we’ve got some serious downside for Kiwi, which we’ve been predicting again for some time, and we needed that US Dollar to really start giving us that bit of push through that market, through there.
Unfortunately for us, GBP/AUD got stopped out because of a decent day for the AU Dollar yesterday. It stopped us out here, unfortunately, but there could be another entry going into next week. NZD/CHF followed through and hit four targets.
So, everything’s looking good there as well, but we’re really looking at these markets now. Majors are really going to come into a decent area of this and US Dollar buying is going to be seen across the board.
We were looking at USD/CAD for buying opportunities and is now starting again to reject these lows. It’s a bit of a false breakout situation if it takes out these highs, here, they could see some USD/CAD longs coming into this.
It’s just a strange week since we need to be a bit patient. Look at that on the weekly now. There’s a nice little rejection of this level that we spoke about in the Forex Market Outlook. If it closes like this, it does look really good for long opportunities going into next week.
So, next week is all going to be about that US Dollar buying. Can those major currency pairs start trending back to key areas? I really like USD/CAD/, NZD/USD, and EUR obviously, since it is the inverse of the US Dollar index. So, we could really see some EUR/USD shorts coming through next week.
I hope you enjoyed the updates this week. I hope you enjoyed the content. If you did, please give me a thumbs up since it lets me know that you enjoy the content and subscribe to the YouTube channel for more. Thank you and have a great weekend.
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