The #Forex Market Wrap is here!
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Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
In this video, I will go through the Forex Market Wrap, highlighting the key levels that have been hit and broken this week, and see what’s played out from what we talked about in the Forex Market Outlook earlier this week.
So, we started with EUR/USD. We wanted to look for several different things. We’re looking for some further downside to the market this week as we were looking for a little bit of US Dollar strength to continue.
We looked at different levels.: the first level was 1.2070. We wanted to see the price to break below this area to look for further downside towards this 1.1950 area and these previous structure lows. Another area that we looked at was 1.2110. We wanted to see the price come and reject this area on a minor level to see if we can get some further downside.
All-in-all, a nice move in the end. So, if you did manage to jump on the EUR/USD short from this level, especially the 1.2110 area, that acted as a really nice resistance point.
We initially wanted to see the price trade below – which we did on the four-hour timeframe – traded back up, and didn’t create any new higher highs. We had a false breakout, and the market continued down to that 1950 area. So, that worked out really nicely on the EUR/USD.
Another market that we looked at was AUD. We were looking at the price finding resistance around 7780. This was the zone that we liked, and we wanted to see the price trade back towards 7670 and even further towards 7574s.
Again, a price action formed here. The four-hour broke above it, created a bit of consolidation, broke through, consolidated, and then continued to drop lower.
We were basically looking for the AU Dollar to reverse its current strength because we saw this huge reversal on Thursday and Friday last week. We’ve seen the same thing this week. Not to the scale of last week; but this week, we’ve seen further bearishness follow through on Thursday and Friday after a pullback on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
We are, again, expecting this to continue. We’ll look at the strength and weakness analysis in the Forex Market Outlook. However, we’ve had a really nice move down. Now, we’re back at this 76.70 level. We need to see how the price reacts from here. Do we see a bit of retracement before a continuation move?
But, the weekly timeframe looks like we are in that corrective position now. We could be even forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern here. We may get that move towards 7574s, a rally back towards 7780s, and then another move to the downside.
the US Dollar’s looking strong at the moment. So, I’m expecting a little bit more downside to these currencies.
Another market we looked at was EUR/AUD. But, it didn’t give us any opportunities in the end.
However, we were watching two levels: the first one was 1.5566. The price blew straight through that level, came back down to the other minor level of 1.5485, and ended up finding support here, and consolidating in this zone.
There are no real opportunities there. If we do go take a look at these weekly, we want to be buyers of this market on a potential reversal move.
There’s still some scope here for that to play out, especially if we look at the daily timeframe and the fact that this could be a higher low. It’s just that I’d like to see the price break back above that 1.5566 resistance to see if we do get any further upside.
This would require the EUR to continue to find some support and move higher, and for the Aussie to break down. If we look at EUR/USD, that one is breaking below. The support and Aussie are sitting, so it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen yet. We need to see the reversal first.
Another market we looked at was oil, the fact that OPEC has agreed with Russia’s and Saudi’s decision to keep the supply of oil very low, suggests that the price of oil could continue to rise.
We’re breaking above that $65 level, where this huge resistance is at the moment. Suppose, we get a couple of weeks trading above this level. I’d expect to rally towards $75. But this is looking good for some potential upside on oil, which means that we could see some rally here in the near future.
That’s the Forex Market Wrap for this week. I hope you had a good trading week, and I’ll speak to you soon.
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