FOREX MARKET WRAP: 31st December
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Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to go through the Forex Market Wrap.
I’ve done one of these for a while because of how the Christmas season has been falling. So, we haven’t done a Forex Market Wrap in a little bit. So, we’re going to do one today.
Obviously, tomorrow is New Year’s Day, so the markets are not open, and we can’t analyse markets tomorrow. However, the market this week has continued to see the US Dollar sell-off.
So, we said last week that it’s hard to judge what’s going to happen and we can’t tag that bearish candle seriously because it was Christmas week, so there was hardly any liquidity in the markets. We’ve seen that the bearishness wholly ignored this week and the price moved to the upside.
Now, EUR was one where we watched for some further upside into this level here, which is the 1.2324 area. If we go into an hourly timeframe, we haven’t quite hit that level. But if we scroll up, I haven’t quite hit that level yet. But we’ve come very, very close to it, and this was the level we were looking for support this week, around the 1.2185 area. It did give us an early retest on the open, and it didn’t return to it since the market defended that level. We didn’t see a retest; we just saw the further upside. But now, the price is coming into this key area structure, and we need to be a little bit aware of what could happen.
So in this block, the most traded area was 1.2314, I should say. This level will be super important to what happens next. If we get any bearish rejection coming in here early on in January, then I think we could start seeing that market push back towards the key level, which is 1.1831 down here on EUR/USD. But first, we need to see how the price reacts to this point.
Are we going to get some chopping around as we did here before seeing the breakout around April-May? Or are we going to see a rejection come through? Or are we going to see the market break to the upside? All I know is that this level will be significant, and we need to see how the market reacts at that point.
We are going into GB Pound. So GB Pound has broken through the 1.36 level. The most-traded level through this block of candles is 1.3893. So, we could see some further upside on GBP/USD into that area before seeing the market move to the downside. This one played out beautifully this week with our levels. We spoke about the support of 1.3430, the market came into that level, then went to one pip drawdown, two pip drawdown, and then continued to press it to the upside until we broke out of the key 1.36. We used that as support as well and is now continuing to push to the upside. So again, this one has a little bit more room to go than the likes of EUR and Kiwi and whatnot. So, we’ll see how this one performs.
The next resistance level that I like to look at is around 1.3893, which stems from this block of trades or block of candlesticks over here.
Now, onto NZD/USD. So, Kiwi was one that completely ignored the bearishness of the week before, which we said: we had to tag with a pinch of salt. The 0.71 was the most traded area of last week, and you can see, here, how the price broke above it, came back, then retested that structure. It did break through it initially, then failed to, and then really press off of that, and close back above the market, then rallied up ever since. I’m looking to see the most traded area or the most valuable area in this point of candlesticks here, going into that weekly timeframe. We have the 0.7296 level, which is where I expect the market to start turning around a little bit.
Again, we’ll need to look at the Commitment of Traders going into the New Year. But essentially, I imagine they have increased their short contracts by a bit considering the price jumped up once again.
Heavy selling pressure could come on Kiwi. I’m expecting some downside out of this market. When is that going to come? I like that 7296 area. If we get a weekly rejection in here, we could start seeing that downside form.
USD/CAD didn’t go according to plan this week. We were looking for the market to start breaking above this key area. So we had a level here, and we said: “if the market can hold above this level, I’d expect to see some further upside.” It didn’t hold above the level, the market broke through, and has continued to fall ever since. It has come back into last week’s most traded area, and it’s just been hovering around. We’ve seen support, resistance, resistance at the moment. It was not looking great on the pullback, to be honest. We have to wait and see how the New Year opens for USD/CAD. We may get a double bottom on the weekly, here. And the price might want to push below these lows before seeing another rally, here.
I’m going to leave it there. I hope you have a great New Year, all things considered. Hopefully, you have a great next year, and I will speak to you very soon. Thank you.
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