FOREX MARKET WRAP: 25th September
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Here’s a recap from our head currency analyst, John Kibbler. Listen closely for tips on your coming trades. Below is the transcript for the video.
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Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, head currency analyst.
In this video, we’re going to take a look at the forex market wrap. We’re going to see how the currencies perform this week and the main news is just the Dollar has gained strength for this week. We’ve finally seen some breaks on a few currency pairs.
EUR/USD has been really good, broke to the downside we’ve finally broken out of this range, and completed two successful closes below the range. This means that the daily cycle has now changed and we’re probably looking for further downside moves from this market. What we can ultimately expect if we just go take a look at that weekly time frame or what we have been looking for, is for the price to continue to break to the downside.
You know seasonally, the Dollar typically strengthens through the end of September through to November. So we’re looking to try and capitalize on that move and we can see here that obviously, price breaking to the downside really nice strong bearish move here on EUR/USD at the moment suggests that that’s going to continue and follow through potentially into these weekly highs just through here.
Expecting further downside going into next week we can even look for a retest of these previous structural lows through here to look for further declines to the market. But essentially continuing to look for that Dollar bias going through into next week.
Kiwi has been one of our reversal pairs to look at this week. Kiwi has been extremely strong over the past few weeks. You can see here on this weekly uptrend through here. However, it got to a point where it was oversold on our strength from weakness calculators.
Suggesting that we were going to see a reversal and this double top structure here that we spoke about at the start of the week in the forex market outlook was an area where I said we could start seeing some downside from Kiwi now and that has again broken through these lows change cycle on the daily time frame.
So expecting further declines here. Also on that weekly time frame, we can also see it’s kind of broken out of this nice channel just through here which is also something that we can add confluence to our move of further decline here as well. Expecting more short major currency pairs release just buying of the Dollar.
Aussie is another one that we looked at. We were in short under these lows which are as it came in quite nicely just after a retest of this structure point through here. It broke through those and those and continued to pour to the downside. Looking for that pullback continuation move will be something that’s on the cards going into next week now and look for maybe a re-test of the structure lows before I move down.
Pound again has performed quite poorly and we’re expecting a pullback into that 1.3 we got that last week. This week expected that momentum to continue and follow-through which we’ve got.
We are looking for a short on Pound-Yen. Price hasn’t broken through the daily low so that hasn’t triggered our order. But look at the price action here. Look at the shallow retracement there. Low range in candles closing back within the previous structure highs and lows so expecting that to break to the downside through here as well. GBP/JPY a good shot to watch as well as CAD/JPY was looking for a bit more of a pullback on CAD-JPY, but we didn’t quite get that so we were looking for a couple of different options.
I’m expecting a retest of this zone through here, so looking for further down. I’ll go to that four-hour time frame. We can see that the market is just consolidating at these lows through here which we spoke about in the video yesterday that we could see a re-test of these highs before the market moves into the downside which is what we’ve got eventually.
So again just kind of look for those break of lows on this market. Look for the continuation to the downside. CAD hasn’t been that weak this week. It has dropped obviously slightly against those major currency pairs. But across the board, it’s performed okay. So we need to see some momentum here to kind of try this break to the downside.
I hope you enjoyed the content this week. I hope you’ve had a great week trading. Thanks for watching, subscribe and I’ll speak to you next week.
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