FOREX MARKET WRAP: 20th November
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Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
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In this video, we’re just going to go over the Forex Market Wrap and go over some key markets and what a week it’s been.
Lots of battling for the US Dollar and gaining strength one-minute, and losing strength for the next. Still, we’ve seen a lot of this volatility surrounding the US Dollar.
More vaccine news this week has almost devalued the US Dollar, and then we’ve seen that kind of fight back through out the US trade sessions, which has been super, super interesting to watch. It’s not great for traders that are looking for those trends to appear. But nonetheless, some great volatility is being seen at the moment in the markets.
One chart we looked at in the Forex Market Outlook, which we didn’t really explore this week in too much detail, was AUD/JPY.
With AUD/JPY, we were looking for the price to head back towards this 75-50 level on the daily timeframe. The price broke out of this really nice longer-term trend line, and that stems from the end of August, and we broke out after news of the vaccine came around. We saw that market rally to the upside. The price then pulls back into that key level of structure that we identified. Now we’re starting to see the bulls come back into the market, and what we really want to see is a nice four-hour change in simplicity down here.
So next week, we could potentially be eyeing up a long opportunity on AUD/JPY.
The AU Dollar has remained pretty strong this week, despite where it is relative to the US Dollar, and the vaccine news has almost helped stem that risk appetite in the markets, which only really benefits the risk currencies.
So, with the market on AUD/JPY, we’ve seen a little bit of a downtrend on this four-hour timeframe. When we’re looking at the daily trend and daily impulses, what I like to see is for the price to pull back into specific areas of support and resistance. Then, if the price continues to form higher highs on a four-hour perspective four-hour timeframe, that’s when I look to continue to buy the market in line with the overall trends.
So, AUD/JPY is looking pretty good. We’ve come back to that 75-50 level, and we’ve bounced. If we can take out the previous structure highs going into next week, that’ll be something I’ll be happy looking at some long opportunities. This will really depend on how the stock market is reacting – how the Dow Jones, in particular, is moving.
So let’s just bring the Dow in, and let’s have a little look at what’s going on here. Weekly’s just looking a bit on the indecisive side – a bit on the bearish side. But this week, it was really looking for it to go well.
What is the price actually doing? Now, the price has recently retested all-time highs. It’s broken through this key area of structure, just through here, bounce the market, and is now retesting this area.
Now, looking at the four-hour timeframe again, it’s very similar to AUD/JPY. We’ve pulled back into the key area of support, and the price is almost looking to bounce to the upside. We have a little bit of a downtrend in here. So, if buyers are going to really step in, then I’ll expect a bit of a break out to the upside.
Typically, we look for a market to rally up through this time of the year, coming into that Christmas period.
Obviously, it’s a little bit different since we have the pandemic to consider, but further news of vaccines is only going to benefit us, and with almost headlines coming out on a daily basis, we should assume that maybe we are going to get a continuation of this risk-on element in the market.
So really looking for the potential for stocks to rally again. If we can get some four-hour trends continuing going into next week. But the prices are just stemming really at these previous sort all-time highs just over here from January 2020.
We’ll see how the end of the year can really see what happens, see if we can flourish and see those highs being broken once again. But that will be super interesting to watch.
One currency that just remains super strong, I’ll be super interested to sound super a lot but, I would be super interested to see how the commitment of traders reports look on Kiwi going into this week.
Kiwi has been strong for a number of weeks now. It’s even taken out this 0.69 level, which I thought the price was looking to reject at the time. It is kind of still kind of within that resistance area. The resistance zone has a high of 6970. So, the price could easily reach that 6970 price and then maybe reverse, but I’ll be interested to see how the commitment of traders reports will be towards the end of the week.
See if we can see any kind of changes to the commercial contracts because typically, as price rises, commercials will sell more. As this is continuing, this uptrend is continuing, I’d expect the contracts to rise quite rapidly on the currency. If we do start seeing that, then we could be looking for some longer-term short opportunities. But at the moment, the price is relatively strong back up at this 6900 level, through here.
So, I hope you’ve enjoyed the content this week. If you did, please leave the thumbs up, and I’ll speak to you soon. Have a great week.
If you’re new to trading, it can be quite overwhelming. But fear not, you can try out trading the AUD/JPY currency pairs by opening a demo account through Blueberry Markets. When you want to try live trading, our customer support team will be there to assist you.