The #ForexMarketWrap is here!
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Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
In this video, we’re going to cover the Forex Market Wrap. We’re going to look at how the charts played out for the week.
I am now going over the charts. Not a lot has happened, overall. We’re going to take a look at some key charts and what was going on.
So, the US Dollar Index looks to be ending the week bullish since we came into this level. It rejected and started to show a bit of bullishness. It hasn’t pushed on how we liked it to like having this low come and get tested. Maybe that will happen next week but we’ll have to wait and see.
The price of the US Dollar is at support. Perhaps, we could look at some USD buys next week.
Going into EUR/USD, we had a bit of a push this week, and now the price is coming back down. It is heading towards the support areas like the US Dollar Index.
But, it’s not that eventful. We need to see more downside out of this because we want to see more pressure on EUR/USD, coming down into these key structure highs here, where we expect to see some buying back into the markets.
The GB Pound was a chart of interest to us when we were looking at GBP/AUD longs. Nothing has come to fruition with the GB Pound though. We were long at GBP/JPY but that one got stopped out this week.
Unfortunately for us, the GB Pound didn’t follow through with a reversal that we saw on the strength and weakness charts. Instead, it found this weekly bearish pattern and continued to the downside.
If you were looking at it on the four-hour timeframe, we wanted that four-hour trend break to the upside. We didn’t get that. We had a false breakout here, and then the markets continued down. It’s important to identify t the four-hour trend so we can see that we have a lower low form. The market then pulls back to an area of resistance and then continues to the downside.
Fortunately for us, we got tagged into that GBP/JPY trade where we could have waited longer to see if that four-hour trend did change for us to take a long position. We had an entry above this high, tagged us in, got a false break out, then the market moved to the downside. That’s unfortunate. You took these on a limb, but the trend is down. To look for it any longer, you need to see that change in cycle.
But unfortunately, the downtrend continued. So, I would expect that to continue until otherwise.
We are going to the AUD/USD. If you’re still short in Aussie, we are in a slight profit. Maybe, keep a hold on this one. Again, the markets haven’t pushed down as we expected.
We looked at the weekly timeframe and I saw that weekly bearish candle in that overbought condition. I wanted to see that price pull down towards this key structure area there or in that 6600 area. The market hasn’t followed through with that this week. It’s stalled but it hasn’t done anything, to be honest. It’s looking for further downside at the moment.
You have to sit in your hands. If it plays out, it plays out. If it doesn’t, we’re going to be aware of where our stops are, and maybe we could have trade early.
But as of the moment, I want to look for the Aussie’s potential to reverse.
A chart of our interest was AUD/CHF, and it looks the same. AUD/CHF didn’t push lower like we expected it to. It’s hovering around at the moment, it looks more bullish than bearish.
If we look at the daily timeframe, we can see that the short-sellers momentum is fading slightly. This is why I wanted to be long on USD/CAD. You can see that similar pattern forming here.
USD/CAD is running at the moment. It slightly upside; I’m still expecting it to be up into these lows.
So, I’m happy to hold on to this one and see if we can get the price retesting that 1.3740-1.3750 structure area. But you can see that fading pattern there, and that’s what we’re getting on AUD/CHF, which is not what we want to see. We want to see momentum like this one when we’re looking to short the market.
May not be one to consider next week. We may have to wait for a lower low to form first before going short on AUD/CHF.
Another market of interest to us. We had a little look at EUR/AUD. The market is holding around this area again. The price is fading; you can see that we’re getting that retracement move here.
But, nothing is impulsing to the upside. It wasn’t triggered on this one. The market sat here, so it looks like it’s waiting for the catalyst to start moving. We need to be patient and sit on our hands there.
I want to take a quick look at XAU because it’s trying to head towards these highs and break out. But, it’s struggling every time it gets there, then it starts selling off. What we need to see from XAU is that breakout.
I received a couple of questions about XAU. We can’t do anything in my book until we see a break out of the range, whether that be a break out of the highs or out of the lows.
I think we’re more likely to break higher, in honesty, because it comes from an uptrend area. So, I expect the market to break higher, but we’ve got to sit and wait for that to set up.
We don’t want to chase these markets. We just want to wait for our set-ups to get involved.
The market we looked at yesterday as EUR/GBP. Unfortunately, it hasn’t triggered and moved to the upside.
Why am I getting involved here in the first place? We know that the market was breaking higher; we looked at this quite a few times over the past few weeks. But the market came, retested this structure here. And now, it’s starting to consolidate.
Yesterday, I saw this nice bullish candle. Then we looked at the chart and we saw that we had a pullback then a nice bullish candle, which does suggest that we are going to start pushing to the upside.
I dove into that four-hour timeframe, tried to identify the four-hour trend, and saw that the price broke to the upside. It looked like this: we formed a higher high. All I expected then is a retest off of these structures high to go long again.
But, the market hasn’t pulled down yet. It was pulling back at night and in the early session. But it didn’t quite make it there, and now the price has continued to the upside.
So, EUR/GBP might be the one to watch next week for some upside.
I hope you enjoyed the content that we provided this week. If you did, please like and subscribe to the YouTube channel. It would mean a lot.
Also, drop some comments below. If you have any questions or anything like that, I’m happy to get back to you ASAP. Thanks for watching, speak to you soon. Cheers!
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