FOREX MARKET WRAP: 14th August
Hi guys, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
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In this video I’m doing for the Forex Market Wrap, we’re going to go through those key-charts from last week, and what we were focusing on the week, in general.
So, there are only two open trades currently, which is NZD/USD and GBP/AUD, which has just crept back into profit recently.
NZD/USD has been in profit ever since near the end of last week and has continued into this week, which we expect a continuation down of that move.
In yesterday’s video, the last video, we spoke about GBP/JPY and the potential for the market to continue to the upside, and we did start seeing that, initially. And this was an area we spoke about, in here, where we expected the market to retest and move to the upside. What we’ve had is a little bit of a pullback, in here. Obviously, there was a change in cycle, down here, but that was early hours of the morning or in the Asia session where, typically, if we’re trading the likes of GBP/JPY, we want to wait for that European open, and when we did see that European open, we saw that change in cycle.
So, you could have looked to go long, in here, stops below the low. You would have actually had a one to one ratio trade, in here, and on a Friday, that’s a pretty good move. Fridays, typically, are quite tricky to trade. Being a Friday, if you were to bank a one-to-one there, that would be brilliant.
I still expect a little bit upside out of this market. It’s just at the moment, obviously, the daily is using that uptrend, which I like a lot.
So I’m expecting that to continue, as long as the four-hour trend remains up. I’m happy to still look for long positions on GBP/JPY.
At the moment, we’ve kind of got this area, here, a consolidation. The markets have broken out of that recently, so we’re expecting that upside to continue.
A lot of our focus this week was on Kiwi Dollars. It was on the selling – Kiwi Dollars. So, if you sold Kiwi this week across the majors or any of the currency pairs, you’d have done pretty well.
If we look at AUD/NZD, I don’t typically trade AUD/NZD myself, but look at this daily chart. It just continues to push to the upside, the really nice four-hour trend in here. If you just looked at the four-hour trend this week and just continued to buy the pullbacks, you’d have done extremely well going into this week, and even last week, you would have done really well on that Kiwi weakness.
Other charts you could have looked at were EUR/NZD – continuing to push to the upside as well. Again, look at that four-hour chart, a trend continuing to the upside.
GBP/NZD is also continuing higher.
So, we can clearly see the Kiwi Dollar is just melting at the moment. The weakness is definitely there. We tried to set it on a couple of occasions on NZD/CAD. We had on a pullback, then we didn’t quite get a pullback. We wanted to see, but if you just trend traded it on your own, you would have done really well.
NZD/CHF as well, we were looking for the pullback into these lows, which didn’t quite get that, and the markets continued to the downside.
NZD/JPY is the only one that’s really holding up at this level, still. We’ve spoken about this level quite often, but this one, just through here. I want to see that broken before we start short in NZD/JPY.
Obviously, the JP Yen is quite weak as well, and this is what happens when you get two weak currencies, a nice consolidation pattern, and that’s what I don’t want to trade. I wanted to trade the strong against the weak currencies, and if there are two weak currencies, you want to stay away from that because the market will have this whipsawing effect, which you don’t want to be involved with.
So the best one this week, in my opinion, was NZD/CHF and NZD/USD.
I really like the four-hour trend, through here, on NZD/CHF. Again, look at the weekly, nice weekly bearish close. Could this continue potentially going through into next week?
So, Kiwi is still really on the cards to look for those short opportunities.
US Dollar is obviously still a big one that we want to be looking at because there’s a potential reversal forming.
However, if we look at the likes of the Euro, for instance, haven’t actually seen a change in trend yet.
Now what I want to see if I wanted to be a buyer of the US Dollar, here, is the market making a new low.
So I need to see the market create some low in order to start buying the US Dollar. Especially against the Euro because the Euro has remained quite strong against the other major currency pairs.
Anything like that would suggest that the US Dollar strength was coming back through. At the moment, we’ve just got to sit in our hands and be a little bit careful with the trades.
We obviously looked at USD/JPY as well, which did have a decent day, going through there. But it doubled topped and has now broken through some lows. It’s just seeing if that will close below. If it doesn’t, then the market is likely to continue higher because that four-hour trend will still be intact.
So, that could be another one going into next week that we will focus on. I like the weekly set up here.
I think this is a good one to watch, and we just may see a little bit of a pullback into this zone, which we actually pointed out in the video, the USD/JPY video going into this week.
So, if we can see a little bit of a pullback there, potentially there would be a long opportunity, here.
So, I hope you enjoyed the content this week. I hope you found it useful. I hope you’ve made lots of profit just from the suggestions of the markets that we make, and if you did, please leave this video alike.
Give me a subscribe if you want to see some more trading content. Comment below how you did this week, and thanks. Cheers.
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