FOREX MARKET WRAP: 11th September
Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video website update with me, John Kibbler, head currency analyst. In this video, we’re going to take a look at the forex market wrap. We’re going to look at how the market is shaped up for the week.
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Finally, we’ve kind of seen this Dollar strength coming through into the market, which is what we’ve been looking for a good while now, and we’ve seen some currencies dip quite aggressively against it and the most affected currency of the week, I’d say with the weakest currency has been the Pound.
If we’re just going into this week’s time frame we can see the GBP/USD has dropped aggressively this week to the downside. Back into these previous structure highs just through here. The Pound is very much on the back foot here.
Expect some further downside from this. We may get a slight retracement phase back up into here, but what this is showing us now is that the daily has changed the trend, and typically when we see that changing trend we’re likely to see the trend continue to the downside. Combining this with the fact that we expect the Dollar to move to the upside, in terms of gaining some strength. due to that seasonality that we typically see through September.
The GBP/USD could be one of the currency pairs that we look to continue, just to trade short when we get these slight rallies in the market. So this is what I’m kind of expecting from the GBP/USD now.
Going on to EUR/USD despite dollar strength, Euro has pretty much stayed strong as well. We haven’t seen any kind of deep breakdown. The market has just remained in this consolidation. Our trade hit target which is fantastic.
We were looking for price to come in these lows which is great. We were also looking for the continuation but, it had a bullish day,
There was an ECB meeting, and Lagarde also spoke. The ECB president basically drove prices to the upside, and EURO we’ve seen it dip back since then, but you know we were in a EUR/JPY position which got stopped unfortunately because of that move. But to me, it’s not looking great to the upside. There’s not much momentum in these candlesticks here.
I would be expecting the market to continue down, but I’m still waiting for a clear close below these lows and, we’ve been waiting for this for a good few weeks in and looking at that weekly, I did expect to see that, and it hasn’t followed through yet, so just to be extra cautious with anything. Now I think, we should wait for a breakdown. We even consider looking at any kind of EUR/USD or Euro positions in general. I want to see it break and close below those low just through there.
USD/CHF broke to the upside. It formed a nice base just through here. The market came, and sort of double-bottomed at these lows gave us a nice little pin candle. We were seeing some divergence as well, with the market forming lower lows and the RSI forming higher lows. So we had some good tell here that the market would push to the upside.
The daily has changed trends, so I’m happy to hold this position. I do still feel we are going to see that rally up just waiting for it to play out, being patient, and seeing if we can get that move to the upside into this weekly area of resistance and it’s looking okay so far.
A four-hour change cycle is a little bit of a bearish time and so I’m looking for that to change back to the upside. We’re retesting this area now, so if we do get that breakout, we start seeing that four-hour trend rally up again, happy to continue to hold this position through here. And USD/CAD as well. So we had one successful try on this already, the second one is in profit and halfway to those targets again.
Just want to milk this market for whatever it will give us, to be honest. Because I think that we are going to see that pullback, the market is making those lower lows, but now we’re starting to see that bullishness comes back in. The RSI in that oversold condition in this and is closing back above.
The 30 areas on the RSI showing us that the retracement phase is in play here, expecting a retest of these structure layers around about 1.34 area, so just keeping an eye on this one, looking for the trend to continue to the upside. If we look at the daily chart, we’ve had a little bit of a move up, re-test of these highs, are we going to get it the same again? And see something like this form with price re-testing that area.
I like this market to the upside, I like Dollar, I like CAD short in general and we can see them here in four hours and a little bit more detail as well.
The market came back into the zone. Let’s see if we can get that pushed back up to the upside, re-testing these highs through here, so USD/CAD still looking pretty good, like the idea of continuing to look to buy the Dollar going into next week.
One thing we just need to be cautious of is the fact that the stock markets are starting to fall, this is giving us our YEN trends. YEN markets a little bit of a boost and that’s why we’re seeing the sort of risk currencies fall a little bit as well. It hasn’t been a dreadful week for the risk currencies, but we can expect maybe a little bit of weakness to hover around them.
We’ve got a second very bearish week closing on the US stock markets. The S&P might even drop back into these previous highs here which could produce that risk of continuation in the markets, which kind of is the reason why we looked at an AUD/JPY move.
The AUD/JPY hasn’t triggered, so I’ve canceled that order now we had a sell-stop, under here with stop losses above the highs. Not looking for that to continue now. Just seeing if we can get some actual decent daily trend out of this. If the market breaks the downside here, then we can start looking for that continuation with a big break out of this sort of consolidation pattern just through there.
So that’s your forex market wrap for this week. I hope you enjoyed the content this week. I hope it’s been a successful one for you. If it has, drop a comment below, and thanks for watching. And have a great weekend.
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