FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: 7th September
Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, head currency analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to be going through the Forex Market Outlook. We’re going to look at the strength and weaknesses of the currencies, and see if we can look for any opportunities.
So, bringing in the strength and weakness table, we can see that there’s only been a couple of decent changes, and so Kiwi has gained quite a few places.
We saw a lot of risk on coming back into the market. Kiwi took a very good advantage of that. We’ve seen a couple of drops.
So, we’ve seen the Canadian Dollar lose value against a couple of currencies, the Swiss Franc as well.
Really looking at these two pairs as a potential for continuations this week. So NZD/CAD, NZD/CHF could be something that we look at.
Obviously, we’ll go for the majors as well, because the Dollar is slowly climbing to the upside. I don’t know whether that is going to continue because we’ve seen a couple of changes towards the end of the last session.
So in the last video, the Dollar was strengthening quite a little bit, and we saw a Pound for instance, when we were doing the Forex Market Wrap we were looking at the potential for the market to potentially close bearish.
It looks something like this at the time we did the video. It then reversed and closed as a bit of a rejection of these previous structure highs, just through here. For instance, on GBP/USD.
So, technically on the US Dollar we are still, or GBP/USD. We are still trending to the upside, and the market is very much making higher highs and higher lows.
Obviously, we have that weekly bearish close. So this is going to be one of those weeks where it could really go, either way.
Now, one thing that I’m going to keep an eye on is this four-hour trend. Because I feel if the four-hour trend starts to change back to the upside, then we’re more than likely going to trend to the upside for the rest of the week.
If that doesn’t happen and we start making lower lows, then I think we’re going to start breaking to the downside. Obviously, got to be able to adapt to the situation that’s in front of us at the moment. And because the dollar is so weak, then the trends are likely going to going to continue.
We’ve pulled back into this area. Obviously, the Dollar is at an area where it should be looking to be bought up, but it’s just not gaining that strength at the moment, and it could just fall a little bit.
So we need to be a little bit careful with this, as well we need to be a little bit careful.
Euro Dollar, we did explain on the Forex Market Wrap that price may react around about these lows once again, and you know the trend is still technically up here.
It’s in a little bit of a range-bound situation at the moment, a little bit consolidation. The only way I’d really truly be happy looking to continue to short this into this level is if we broke through these lows. I might sound like a bit of a broken record at the moment with regards to the Dollar. But, you know, still looking for the potential for these lows to be taken out.
At the moment, the price actually on the daily time frame isn’t suggesting that that fall is highly likely, especially that close on Friday. I didn’t anticipate that huge rally up towards the end of the US session.
So yeah, this is going to be another one where on Monday you may want to move stops to break even on this or at least just maybe bank half of the position, and see if the rest will run. But Monday is going to be a key-teller in this market.
If we do get that breakdown, and close below these lows, then I think we’re going to see a huge rush to buy the US Dollar.
If that doesn’t happen, we’re going to see EUR/USD rally back up into these highs, and there could be potential for a breakeven, bigger breakout to the upside.
But you know, looking at that daily price action with these long wicks closing within each other’s ranges doesn’t look particularly great there.
USD/CHF is the only one that seems to be gaining a little bit. Swiss obviously, is pretty weak as well. So you can see that from the strength from the weakness table, this market is starting to kind of break to the upside.
So you know, it’s going to be one of those. I think this is going to be the early indicator for that Dollar strength or weakness.
If USD/CHF can rally, then I think, eventually, everything else will rally alongside it. But, remember, the Swiss Franc very weak at the moment, and that’s why we’re potentially looking at NZD/CHF.
This is one could be one of the charts of the week. You know, the market did trend down nicely. It’s now changed cycle, broke to the upside, we’re at a bit of a level at the moment. You know, is this trend going to continue now, and head higher?
If we go to the weekly time frame, you can see a nice bullish close. We reacted off this level down through here, which is what we anticipated. We had a nice doji week. The market is climbing back to the upside.
So you know, you can look for areas where the market could come back into, so maybe, even this area up here or these other previous highs, just through here, and if that’s the case, you could look for trend trading opportunities to that point.
So again, going into that four-hour. The trend is to the upside at the moment, retested these highs in here. If you get a double bottom pattern, there could be an opportunity to get long on NZD/CHF, same with NZD/CAD.
Really the market is moving to the upside, pull back really nicely into this zone, just through here on the weekly time frame. Daily’s change cycle now with the market making lower lows, lower highs, breakout, making higher highs now. So you could be looking for the continuation of this move to the upside.
What I’d be looking at is if price can retest this zone here, I’d be then on that four-hour time frame. Yet again, looking for a continuation of the trend here, okay.
So, that’s what I’m going to be looking for this week, some potential Kiwi continuation. I’m going to be super interested to see what happens to the Dollar this week because it is in a couple of key-areas.
Even if we look at AUD/NZD, for instance, AUD/USD, for instance, back at these previous highs. Now, are we going to get another move for a Dollar to the downside?
So just be a little bit cautious with that this week. I hope you enjoyed the trading content last week.
I hope you had a great weekend, and let’s see what we can pull out the markets this week. Thanks for watching this video update, and I’ll speak to you soon.
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