FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: 5th October
Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, head currency analyst.
In this video, we’re going to go through the Forex Market outlook. We’re going to outline a couple of pairs that we could be interested in going into this week. One thing I want to note is just the fact that we are seeing a bit of Pound strength despite the Brexit news recently and the sort of negative Brexit news.
The Pound has actually gained some strength last week, and quite significantly, and there’s one chart I want to look at in particular which is against the Australian Dollar that I think we could potentially take some advantage if we do see the trend continue.
GBP/AUD, Aussie is one of the weakest last week. The Pound is one of the strongest. It makes sense to go and look at that chart. We have Yen continuing to sort of find those high sixes, sevens. This typically does lead to a bit of a reversal. But looking at the charts at the moment looks to me like that Yen strength could continue.
AUD/JPY another one of those I want to take a look at. So let’s just go into the charts. You can see here I have a number of them open.
So for instance, I’ve got AUD/USD open just because we’re in this position. Still seeing a downside to this market, so I’m just bringing this open. What I really like about this market is the fact that we’re still making lower lows and lower highs. What I really want to do is see that a four-hour change in trend so that we can look to definitely continue this market to the downside.
So, if I go to the four-hour at the moment, the price is still technically up, and I want to see that break of this low in here and this level. If we get that, then this market is going to head towards these lows. At least if it continues on that would be great. But at least these lows here may be tested.
I really want to see that happen going into this week. Also, we’re in a EUR/JPY position. So we just got in taken in under this low just through there. The market is very much like the down side here. Euro losing some value, Yen still in those high numbers. I also like the fact that the four-hour change cycle. So, expecting this to continue to the downside as long as that condition does not change. So, still happy with this move in here.
And obviously USD/CHF, we’re still along with USD/CHF. I’m having to be a little bit patient with this one, but I’m happy with this position, happy that the market has retested. This previous structure high is now potentially looking at support just through here.
Again if you are looking for any add-in positions, just wait for that four-hour trend to continue in order to look for those. But essentially, going to the kind of strength and weakness side of things. GBP/AUD is on the list for some long opportunities.
Now we’re just going to the weekly time frame. We’ve had a couple of bullish weeks just off these lows through here, so we had a bit of a false break out of this low where the market broke, closed below then closed back above that low in here. You can actually look left and see lots of support around this area as well.
So expect the market to kind of break and push to the upside just through here on GBP/AUD. Now, one thing we can really watch out for is the daily trend. Because if we go take a look at it, we don’t actually have a change in daily trend yet because the previous structure high to me is still here.
The market has rallied up and he’s pulling back down and now we’ve got this kind of situation where there’s a bit of a bullish candle after quite a bit of a bearish move.
What I’m going to be looking for in particular is that change in daily trend. And if price can break above these highs, then it’ll be ideal to look for those long opportunities in line with strength and weakness this week. Keep an eye on GBP/AUD just through there.
Another one I quite like as well is AUD/JPY. If I go to the monthly time frame, we can see that price has false broken out of this high just through here. Again, close above the next candle closes back below. I can sense some downside in this market even if it is just into this previous structure low through here. Going to that daily timeframe we have that really nice lower low, lower high pattern.
Now, this market may pull up slightly, so if I just bring in this zone through here. We haven’t quite tested that yet, and if I go to that four-hour very much like AUD/USD. Price hasn’t changed cycle yet, so what we could see is a push back up in, then a continuation to the downside.
Hopefully, that keeps us in the AUD/USD trade as well. But I’m expecting some downside here, so I’m looking for one or two things to pull back into that zone or the four-hour to change trend and continue to the downside here because the higher time frames are really saying to us that we should be short this market.
Hope you enjoyed this video update, and I hope you have a great trading week and I’ll speak to you soon.
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