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FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: 5th July

In this week’s Market Outlook we take a look at the #NZDUSD, #EURUSD, #NZDJPY and more!
 
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Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.

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In this video, we’re going to take a look at our currency pairs of interest for the week, strength and weakness table, and some areas of interest.

If I bring in the strength and weakness table, we can see that there’s not too much change. The JP Yen has weakened quite significantly. The Kiwi gained quite a lot of strength, and that’s what we were buying last week, and it looks like that strength could continue this week. So, buying Kiwi is looking pretty good.

NZD/JPY, in particular, we spoke about it last week. It is looking quite nice as well. We’re going to take a look at that one.

Aussie lost some ground, so it was at the extreme at six, where it dropped to three from last week. It lost three places across other currency pairs. That could be interesting to see; maybe we’ll see a bit of Aussie weakness coming.

It’s quite interesting to see that disparity between Aussie and Kiwi. We don’t often get that. Other than that, there’s no real change anywhere else. I only look at things that change significantly like the JP Yen, Kiwi, and Aussie and they usually don’t look much towards the other currencies if they’re not doing much.

Let’s go for the majors, and we can see, here, that we have the US Dollar index. The US Dollar Index remains pretty much range-bound. The market came up into these previous structure highs, here, and started to reject. We had a nice little breakout before that the market would continue to the upside, it might be coming to retest the range lows, back here. But, the market didn’t do that. Instead, we started to push back down again.

But we do have consecutive higher lows. It’s just that the market looks more to me like we could see another impulse breakout to the downside more than anything. At the moment, we’re going to keep an eye on this. It’s in a consolidation pattern. It may come and retest this structure lows, here, around 95. But at the moment, it’s in consolidation. We can’t do much. It could go either way, to be honest. It could break to the downside and push lower or break to the upside and push higher, and that’s why I don’t want to trade consolidation patterns. I want to wait for those breakouts that clear the trend to form, so it could give you a clear direction.

That’s going to be pretty much the same for EUR not clear, not much to do. As I said, if we do get a breakout pattern, we could look for some long positions. I mean we could have this triangle, which is very similar to the US Dollar Index. If it does break to the upside, we could look for some longs if it breaks lower. Again, we’re probably looking for the price to come and retest this high range area, here.

GBP/USD is not felt here; this was trending but the market is finding a bit of support and a bit of bullishness coming out from the GB Pound at the moment. The weekly chart looked more like we’re going to see a rally up into these highs once again. I don’t want to be on the short side of this at the moment. It looks to me like we could see a bit of bullishness.

The four-hour timeframe is a bit bullish here. If the four-hour continues to make higher highs, then it’s likely that we will see that continuation. I’m interested in it once again. Weekly’s looking a bit bullish, here. That’s the only reason I’m staying away from shorting the GB Pound going into next week. We could also see a little bit of a drop; maybe a retest of this structure low through there, maybe an inverse head and shoulders pattern. What we could see is like a push-down and then a move-up. That could also be an interest to us next week.

The main one that I want to talk about is Kiwi. We’re still long on Kiwi. The market is still rallying to the upside, and weekly is looking pretty bullish. It even looks to me like we’re going to extend even higher. I like the idea of the price going back into this zone, here, lots of contact there on the price throughout 2019 and 2020. So, I want to see the price heading back towards this area, here.

The weekly timeframe is looking bullish, the daily is looking to extend up, and the four-hour is looking pretty good on the bullish side. We’ll see how that continues. But, Kiwi’s my main one and the one we were short on last week was EUR/NZD. It’s looking pretty good to the downside. Still, the daily timeframe is now creating new lows once again. Meanwhile, the four-hour is still forming lower lows lower highs.

The next place we can look for a couple of pullbacks is, maybe, back into this zone. So, if the price does want to rally back up, we can look for some downside once again on EUR/NZD. But, let me show the session break-offs: Kiwi is looking like the one to buy next week.

The other chart that I like is NZD/JPY. We’ve already spoken about this last week and what we were suggesting was the market could start pushing back to the upside. Now, it’s taken out this high, here, and it’s giving us two daily bullish closes. To me, that is a good sign that the price could hold if we came back and retested. That’s what I’m expecting now; I’m expecting the market to come back, retest, then rally back to the upside.

We could also be looking at the four-hour timeframe, seeing how that four-hour timeframe trend plays out because we do have a nice little uptrend in the market at the moment. Here, we have nice little higher highs and higher lows. So, is the market going to pull back? Maybe it will give us a bit of a complex pullback, a little bit of consolidation, and a rally back to the upside. That’s what I’m expecting.

But, NZD/JPY is the one to watch for me next week, considering that the JP Yen was the weakest currency last week and Kiwi was the strongest. Keep an eye on this currency pair, in particular. It could be the one to trade on your intraday and swing trade basis.

I hope you enjoyed this Market Outlook video. If you did, please give it a thumbs up and subscribe to the YouTube channel. I hope you have a great week trading, and I’ll speak to you soon.

If you’re new to trading, it can be quite overwhelming. But fear not, you can try out trading the NZD/JPY or GBP/USD currency pairs by opening a demo account through Blueberry Markets. When you’ve transitioned into live trading, our customer support team will be there to assist you. 


Blueberry Markets is not a financial adviser, and does not issue advice, recommendations, or opinion in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a margined transaction. We provide general advice only and accordingly you should consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting on the advice.