FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: 3rd August
Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to go through the Forex Market Outlook. We’re going to go over those currency strengths and weaknesses, and we’re going to go over some pairs of interest.
So, it’s not going too dissimilar to last week’s, to be honest. Because last week, we were looking at Kiwi to lose some value. We can clearly see here on the strength and weakness table that the market has started to lose some value, which is great because we are selling Kiwi at the moment. In particular, we are selling it against the Swiss Franc, which is gaining strength, which is good to see. So, I want to continue that next week because the market is set up quite nicely for it.
So Kiwi’s still on the agenda for those short opportunities, and I am looking to buy the US Dollar now as well. Because like Kiwi, we were at that plus seven last week. So, we were looking for the reversal in that strength key. The US Dollar is at minus seven, and you can see that it’s a minus seven again this week because it remained a little bit weak last week. We’re looking for that reversal in line with that seasonal pattern that we discussed a couple of weeks ago.
So, I want to be a buyer of the US Dollar. I am at least looking to buy it potentially. I could dive straight in there and buy it, but maybe against a couple of weaker currencies like Kiwi for instance, and perhaps the CA Dollar. So to me, the US Dollar will start seeing a little bit of strength according to this, potentially, and Kiwi’s weakness will continue.
So looking at those charts, let’s go and take a look at NZD/USD first. So, NZD/USD backed up at this nice 6700 area and retested this structure. I like that if I go to a weekly timeframe and zoom right in, we see that the market is at this resistance level where it happened before, and the market is overbought on the RSI in a weekly timeframe. Typically, that can lead to some interesting moves, and you can see from the last time that happened, the market did fall off quite significantly. I doubt we’ll see something like that quite extreme again, but I anticipate a little bit of a fall perhaps, maybe into these lows once again, around 6400.
So, the way I’d look at this going into next week is that if I go into that four-hour timeframe, I will look for a four-hour change in the trend. At the moment, we don’t have that yet. The market is consolidating in this slightly tight range on the four-hour timeframe. So, what I want to see is prices break below these lows through here. If we can do that, break and close below those lows, I want to look for that pullback continuation move on any Kiwi pair. I am looking to sell the market in line with that strength from weakness table.
Another chart that was featured was USD/CAD, wherein you could potentially buy the US Dollar against the CA Dollar,
If I go into the weekly timeframe, why would that be feasible? Well, looking at the weekly this is a really big zone. The market found multiple resistance here and a bit of support through here. This week’s candle has closed a bit of other reversal or indecision candle, suggesting that we could see some upside through there.
Going to that daily timeframe, you can see the market is starting to bottom out through here. Like it did, over here, before when we looked at the four-hour, the four-hours now change cycle because of what we were putting down here. We were getting lower lows and lower highs then we’ve broken that trend, which now has a new high form. So, we can see a lot of wicks in here as well. If the market can break out again, we have a great level running through there. Again, let me draw that great level, through here where the market found support, resistance, and resistance. If it takes that out, that would be a great level to buy. So, around 1.3440 area would be good to see the market retest after a breakout before looking for that long opportunity.
So, that’s going to coincide as well with the US Dollar index. The US Dollar index came into that 93 US Dollar level, which was an area of interest for me. The daily timeframe is starting to see some bullishness again. Are we going to rally up towards that 95 US Dollars? If we do, that’s going to put pressure on our major currency pairs.
So, the EUR will likely pullback. The GB Pound will likely have a slight pullback as well and Aussie. But, my favourites are NZD/USD and USD/CAD, and that’s because you can see that weakness against that US Dollar that you want to buy.
So, the other currencies are gaining strength. If you think that you should buy a currency, you want to be trading it against the weaker one because there is more likely going to be a trend form there. I have a trend strategy, so I want to wait for that trend to develop first.
So, I’m happy to look for buying opportunities on USD/CAD, and selling opportunities on NZD/USD if we get that four-hour change in trend. Other charts of interest are GBP/NZD. We want to continue to sell the NZ Dollar.
Looking at the weekly, we had a really good bullish candlestick going into last week. We were anticipating that there was still a little bit of a way to go before we retest that candle as well. So, I’ll be eagerly watching the four-hour to see if we do get any pullbacks into any areas of support where I can look to buy it on an intraday basis. So perhaps, back into this previous structure high, for instance.
Same goes for EUR/NZD as well. I want to be a buyer in this market. Daily’s looking a little bit vulnerable here. I want to see a bit of a pullback here. Maybe on the daily timeframe, or like I said I’ll keep an eye on that four-hours. See how that four-hour trend plays out. At the moment, we’re back at these highs so I can’t be a buyer of the market unless it comes and retests this structure here and we could look to buy the market but other than that, there is nothing going on too much on EUR/NZD.
We’re in NZD/CHF, which is pretty much the reverse of that, it’s moving nicely. I expect four targets to hit here. I’ll be looking for further add-ins as well. We’ve already looked at a couple of areas where we could have had an add-in trade. If it does the same again, maybe rallies back up to here and does the same thing that’ll be great. Or even a break out of the lows, that would be a good thing to watch for. But, the Commitment of Traders, the commercial short position is quite strong. So, I’m happy to continue to look for Kiwi short opportunities.
So, not much of a change from last week. If I don’t trade AUD/NZD, but if that’s something that you want to look at this nice daily trend forming, that could also be an area where you look to buy the market. But for me, I’m going to be focusing on that NZD/USD this week and seeing if we can get that breakdown. Let’s see, if we can get that major pullback, especially on this weekly timeframe. Can we see that start to drop? That’ll be good. So, watch out for a break out there.
Thanks for watching this Forex Market Outlook video. I hope you have a great week trading, and I’ll speak to you soon.
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