FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: 31st August
Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to go through the Forex Market outlook. We’re going to look at the currency strength and weaknesses.
We’re going to focus on the majors because we’ve been really looking for that US Dollar strength to come in, and last week that was a part of our analysis. I was looking for that US dollar strength to come in if we were to get those breaks in trends on daily timeframes but that didn’t go our way.
The market continued that US Dollar bearishness and pushed to the upside. Since then, we’ve seen a couple of breakouts, and if I bring out the strength and weakness chart, we can see that the AU Dollar was the strongest currency of the week – again, five places across other currencies.
So Aussie is super, super strong. But US Dollar did gain a place, but only one place, and evidently, still very weak. We’ve also looked at Euro weakness through there: CHF Swiss and JP Yen.
So, this week, we could be looking for that AU Dollar strength continuance that we’ve seen recently, and we can see that across multiple pairs.
Here, I’ve got the EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD, AUD/CHF, AUD/CAD, and the reason is I’ve chosen these is because it’s just showing you that kind of trend breakdown.
We can see on the weekly that Euro we had that nice bearish weekly close last week. That suggested to us that we could start seeing a bit of a pullback in price. It’s important to note that when we talk about the weekly price action and then dive into the daily. Because if the daily trend doesn’t change, then it’s likely that we’re not going to see that weekly breakdown.
If we look at the daily timeframe, we didn’t get a change in trend. The market came up, but this is low that we needed to see a break and take it out. It didn’t do that.
We started to get some bullish days, and then the market started to pushback to the upside. That’s quite evident across the other major currencies.
Now, Euro hasn’t formed a new high. So this is still technically in that area where it could start to drive a little bit lower. But at the moment, obviously, this is one of the few that haven’t broken out yet.
Because at GB Pound, we can see that on the weekly time frame, again, we were looking for that potential for this market after we projected this high, close below, so that we could see a bit of a move lower. And again, that’s why I look at the daily trend as well.
The weekly is only going to show you a bit of price action if you go to the daily timeframe as the trend has broken down. What we wanted to see from the trend was a break out of these lows. We didn’t get that, and now the market trend has continued to the upside. It now formed a new high.
What I really like to see is, if this was going to continue up, a second daily close above. So on Monday, if the price can break and close above again, that would signal that we are going to see a potential continuation of this trend through there – looking a bit bullish here on GB Pound.
Aussie is looking extremely bullish, really nice bullish close. We were looking at the RSI – looking at the fact that the price was making higher highs. The RSI was making lower highs and we’re expecting a bit of a drop back. I mean wasn’t expecting too much, maybe just into this 0.7 area, didn’t quite get that in the end in the market, rather to the upside. Again, we looked at a counter-trend move, which isn’t as successful as trend trading moves, but we wanted this load breaks through here in order to be on that short side of the market. Then, obviously, it popped back to the upside. It broke and formed a new high, once again.
So looking at this Aussie in a bit more detail. Where could Aussie really head up to on the monthly time frame? There’s a nice little level around about that 0.75, which could come into play on this move up. What I’m expecting from Aussie now is either a continuance up into that level where we start seeing some downside or a little bit of a pullback continuation move. What I’m going to be watching is to see if the market does drop back down. Even if we’re going to the four-hour time frame and see where that blue line is now, and you know, if the market does drop back down into this area, it gives us a double-bottom pattern or something like that, that could be ideal in looking for long positions here on Aussie.
Going into Kiwi, we’ve got pretty much the same thing going on here. Now Kiwi was the only one I wasn’t too interested in last week because Kiwi was already at this weekly support. We can see that that’s been a really good move there on Kiwi since that weekly trend is continuing.
We could see, again, another rally up in the New Zealand-US Dollar prices daily time frame – it now has a broken trend. So, we can see, here, a nice little downtrend. The market’s broken trend now – creating a higher high. So again, I like to mark up that zone there. Will the market come and retest this zone before continuing up? That’s what I’m going to be looking for here on NZD/USD.
AUD/CHF and AUD/CAD are looking good because if we go to the weekly timeframe, for AUD/CHF, you’ve got this all this range area and the market’s breaking out of that.
Now, if we go to the daily time frame, we can see that the price had this consolidation area, more short term that’s broken out. So, we could see a little bit of a drop continuation here on AUD/CHF.
AUD/CAD, as well, is something that we were looking to short a couple of weeks ago, which we did quite successfully. The market now made this nice little lower low, lower high pattern, break out into higher high. So once again, just seeing that trend is continuing. Why is that trend continuing? Well, if you look left, we’re at that weekly supporting level. The market’s found that area, and buyers have stepped back and that strength has continued. That’s why it’s sometimes good to look at the weekly just through here. Mark up those levels on a weekly so you can see that high was the area of interest. Hit that it’s now starting to push back to the upside. We’ve got that nice daily breaking trend. What I’ll do now is mark up this high, through here, and say to myself: “Well, if the price comes back into this zone, could we then look to go long?” We can see the averages are just starting to spread out here as well. So, what we could be looking for is a nice little bit of a downtrend on the four-hour to this point, then look for the trend continuation through here.
So Aussie is looking very, very strong – looks to be the currency to watch this week. We were looking for, obviously, the breakdown last week and it just hasn’t come through. The weekly’s and daily’s are just a really nice change in trend and to the continuing the uptrend, I should say. But that’s why it’s super important when looking for these kinds of reversal setups, is that you don’t expect too much of a move, as long as the market is in that uptrend environment.
We need to look for those continuations now. So if we do see a pullback, look for the market to long up into that 0.75 area this week. So, keep an eye on that.
I hope you enjoy the content so far and last week. If you did, please like and subscribe to the YouTube channel, and I’ll speak to you soon.
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