FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: 28th September
In this week’s Market Outlook we take a look at the #EURUSD, #AUDUSD , #NZDUSD and more.
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Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, head currency analyst.
In this video, we’re going to go for the Forex Market outlook, going to look at the strength and weaknesses of the currencies. The change from last week and if we can target a few pairs of interest going into this week.
Bringing in the strength and weakness table. We can see that there’s been a lot of downside to a couple of the risk currencies. Aussie and Kiwi were pairs or currencies that we were really focusing on last week in order to look for some reversals in those markets. That’s continued this past week, and we can see that by the changes in the pairs and even Kiwi has changed currency pairs against the majority of other currencies and is really looking weak at the moment, which we could look to capitalize going on into next week.
The Dollar as well has gained strength in the fives now. I’m expecting that Dollar strength to really continue, as we’ve talked about before. Seasonally the Dollar is very strong, and typically that runs until the end of November. Really looking to capitalize on these major currency pairs, especially now, a few majors have started to break through a few key levels.
So one currency pair that we focused a lot on is the EUR/USD and recently broken out of this range, broken to the downside. We’ve got two successful lower low-level closes of these lows now, which is great.
So what I’m expecting now is the market to potentially pull back into this level so if I just quickly grab my pen tool. All I’m looking for is a pullback into these previous structure lows through here, then looking for the continuation down.
We might get a moment where price just rolls over, but I am looking for the retest before looking to go short. Typically when we do see these sort of head and shoulders or consolidations break out, we do usually see a retest of that structure or that sort of neckline area and then see that continuation down. That 114 area looks quite good for targets. We can see in the past price has retested these areas, so looking for that downward continuation through on Euro.
Kiwi as well, we’ve broken out of this consolidation range. We spoke about the potential for the double top on the daily time frame. Which has now broken to the downside. We can see here break out through there. Again, two successful lower low lower close candles below this low that gives me the opportunity to look for continuation. Once again just look for that pullback into the structure can we see this market rollover.
Strength and weakness are suggesting that this is one that we should really watch, so going to be looking for that going into next week. You know hopefully maybe even get a couple of daily bullish candles. A bearish candle off that level then looks for those breaks to the downsides, targeting the lows as we kind of go down. But NZD/USD I really really like in order for short opportunities.
Same really with the Aussie. The market has also created a nice lower low pattern through here. You can see there the market making that nice lower high which we shorted hit our targets at this blue line just through here.
Price broke to the downside now looking for that continuation, looking for that Dollar bias to really start pushing through on these markets. We’ve got to be a little bit careful, obviously because this is saying that you know we are going to see that risk-off which usually leads to the stock markets declining. So we’ll also have to keep an eye on the stock markets. If the stock markets continue to fall, then we are going to see that risk currency effect and see these Aussie and Kiwis continue to drop. But I like shorting opportunities on this now. I like to see that the daily time frame gives us lower lows because we can see here when we had a higher high back through April.
Look at that nice trend that comes out of the market even back in January 2020. We get that lower low in here, market breaks for the downside. We get that higher high market rallies. We’ve got that lower low again and we are going to see a drop in trend here on Aussie.
Looking at the strength from the weakness table there, that gives us some opportunities elsewhere. So AUD/CAD can actually gain quite a bit last week, which was a little bit surprising and considering that it is also a risk currency, but that’s gained, and we’ve seen this here on AUD/CAD where price has broken through these lows again to successful lower closes. This gives us the opportunity to then try the pullback, so a nice potential trending market forming here on AUD/CAD
Same here with AUD/JPY. I really like this market a lot, the fact that it’s broken down. I quite like this zone just through here for a bit of a re-test, whether it will pull back that far. It’s obviously yet to be seen, whether you can see a pullback into sort of 75-60 areas for shorting opportunities. But now the market’s kind of pushed down on the daily time frame. Starting to get a bit indecision here, candlesticks closing back within each other’s range, so we could start seeing a bit of a pullback on pairs like this.
Just be aware that we are in a bit of an oversold condition as well. We can see that on some of the daily time frames here. So when we start seeing a collection of that combined with the price action you know if we get a bit of a bullish close tomorrow. I would expect a retracement before a continuation at that point.
I’d want to see some daily bearish candlesticks in order to continue getting short on this market. But those are the markets I want us to focus on. We also can have a little look at sort of NZD/JPY as well. Same sort of vibe here in terms of looking for that potential pullback into these lows, the nice changing trend here. Weekly’s looking good there as well, the same on NZD/CAD.
NZD/CAD hasn’t quite made a lower low yet. So what we typically want to see is that trend breaking to the downside here. I haven’t quite had that bit of a more of a false breakout, so need to be a bit patient with that one. But NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD looking very good. AUD/USD and NZD/USD looking good also. I really like the fact that we’ve broken out on Euros.
Hopefully, we have a great trading week.
I hope you’ve enjoyed this. If you have, please like and subscribe to the Youtube channel for more, and I’ll speak to you soon.
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