FOREX Market Outlook: 21st December
Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to be taking a look at the Forex Market Outlook. I’m going to highlight a couple of things.
We’re going to start with the strength and weakness table, which is interesting. This week, we saw a continuation of the NZ Dollar strength, which is interesting to see as we still had a Commitment of Trader signal last week. We were looking for a little bit more upside to this market before seeing the downside, and we’ve got more developments on that today.
We also have the US Dollar heading into the extreme oversold condition, which is typical at this time of the year and we’re looking for buyers to step back in more in the new year than this week in particular.
Those are the two things that I’m going to focus on.
I like the idea of the US Dollar weakness continuing until the end of the year, and there are a few levels on the majors at the moment, which I want to take a quick look at.
Now, EUR/USD is approaching this cluster of buying and selling that was in this consolidation pattern. We talked about this earlier in the week, suggesting that this is where institutions are building big orders. But, the markets moved away from that. I expect the market to travel back to that point, go to the most traded areas of that consolidation zone, find resistance and move away from that.
We can do one or two things this week: we can either sit in our hands because it is a low liquidity week and wait for the market to head towards that 1.2308. If we see a weekly rejection of this level, we expect some downside to come.
Suppose you will look to trade this week, then the key support for me will be around 1.2159. And what I’ll be looking for is to see if the price gets into this area, here, where we can see the market has found resistance, resistance, resistance, resistance, resistance, resistance, and support recently. If the price happens to get back down around 1.2159, I’ll be looking to buy from this area, up into 1.2330.
So, EUR/USD is a nice level to look for those buyers to step back into the market.
NZD/USD is the one to watch towards the end of the year and the start of next year, just because we have multiple confluences. We have a cluster up here or a consolidation pattern where the market again was traded lots through that point. The market subsequently moved down from this level, which means that when the price comes and retests the most traded level, I’ll expect a little bit of reaction from that point.
So, 0.7223 will be the level that I’m going to watch for a pullback, then this zone in here would become an area of interest to me. If the price falls into the most traded area in this level, it would be the one I’d be targeting for some potential continuation of the trend.
But, what I’m expecting is some short term US Dollar weakness: for the price to head towards this level, rejecting the new year, and potentially move down from the back of that. That means we can look for some short-term long opportunities this week until we hit that key level.
Once again, a very popular area on NZD/USD was this 0.7086 where we have some resistance and some support, through here. If the price happens to hit this 0.7086 level this week, I’ll be looking for potential long opportunities up towards 72-23. if the price takes off before that and hits that level, I won’t be looking for buys at that point. But, we also have the Commitment of Traders signal, and we’re still looking to push the extremes on that. So, I’m looking for a little bit more upside to this market.
The key level on GB Pound this week is going to be 1.3496. Its probably the most traded level last week, and we can see all the interaction through this area, here. The market found support, resistance, support at this point, support, a little bit of resistance, and support most recently, and If trade talks continue to the point where there could be a Brexit deal, I’d expect a retest, looking for longs. If the price breaks through, I’ll be looking for shorts around this 1.3496 area.
AUD/USD was something we looked at last week because the weekly timeframe was making higher highs and the RSI was making lower highs. So, I expect the market to continue to push a little bit higher from that US Dollar weakness perspective. We can look for a short-term pullback, but the major resistance point will be that 0.7671. I was highlighting that it’s tested multiple times, always having a good reaction from that area.
If I go to the hourly timeframe, the support will be down at this 0.75655 area because we have lots of interaction around this level with support and resistance. If the price ends up back here, I’ll be looking to go long towards that key resistance level, which sits at 7671.
USD/CAD was also something of interest for us last week, and this is almost like the first sign that we see a bit of US Dollar strength. CAD is weaker at this point; that’s why we’re getting this consolidation pattern. Suppose the price does start heading upside, as I was looking at a previous point, around 1.3143 or looking at the previous around 1.3 level. All I’m looking for now is up into this 1.3143 area, which is an excellent level on the charts. You can see just looking left. There is a massive level of interest and support from that point.
Going into the hourly timeframe now, we’re looking for the potential for this market. We are in a bit of range, that’s why the level that I’ve pointed out at 1.2750 has featured support this week because the market has entered this range. It keeps coming to the middle of the range, reacting from it and it keeps coming to this point. So, I think, if we are going to see a breakout, we may see one more retest of 1.2750. if we were to get the breakout at that point, I’d expect the market to start pushing to the upside. But this could be the first major currency pair that drives higher towards that key resistance level.
So, keep these in mind when looking at your markets this week, and markdown those key levels. I hope they helped. Have a great week, and I’ll speak to you soon.
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