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FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: 19th October

In this week’s Market Outlook we take a look at the #EURUSD, #AUDUSD , #GBPAUD and more!

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Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, head currency analyst.

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In this video, we’re going to take a look at the strength and weaknesses of the currencies. And what we can anticipate for the week ahead.

Looking really towards the buying of the Dollar still. We really want to be active in buying the Dollar. I really like the idea of continuing to look for that US Dollar strength.
And looking at the strength and weakness table, a few things we want to highlight. The thing I really like seeing that Euro starting to drop now.
EUR/USD something that we’re in, expecting that to kind of continue to the downside, but we’ll have a little look at that in a second. Euro, I really like the look of it.
Obviously, Aussie has declined still. We’ve got a bit of a battle with the Aussie recently. It gave us a little bit of a false breakout reading last week, which we looked for, and discussed whether we were going to get that false breakout or not. It did occur in the end, and the price has pushed lower, which is fantastic. Looking for some potential continuation of that.

I’m still really looking for Dollar strength to come through. Obviously, it’s only jumped to one place off of last week, but seasonally very good. I mean kind of looking at the major currency pairs especially, the EUR/USD and the Dollar index looking good now.

The reason why I kind of want to continue to look for that Dollar buying is if we do actually, just take a look at this weekly time frame, it looks to me like we’ve just created this first lower high through here. If we have just created this lower high, then I would expect a continuation to the downside with the potential of price coming back into these weekly highs through here.
The Dollar is typically strong this time of year, through to the end of November. I want to try and take advantage of that as much as I physically can, and we’re in this position here.

Now I did have a question saying do we hold or do I hold trades over the weekend very often, and the answer is no, I don’t.
But when we do have some other factors in play like the seasonality. I’m happy to hold positions some of the time. Not all the time, but sometimes I’m happy to hold positions.

With Euro, expecting a potential drop into this level here still, and we just need to wait for that really to start playing out. The lower highs coming into here, very nicely.

Now daily starting to impulse to the downside.

In the four-hour time frame, we can see the fact that we’re starting to get these lower lows now, which we hadn’t seen in a while. Which, when we typically see the four-hour trend higher, we have a weekly and daily retracement phase.
When we start seeing the four-hour move to the downside, we start seeing that impulse on a downtrend. That’s what we started to see here.
If the price does kind of breakthrough these highs and breaks trend, then obviously, our bias and our ideas are wrong, and that’s why we have our stop loss in that position through there. But what I really want to see is the price trend to the downside.
I want to see four-hour breaking into new lows, which will then continue to help us buy that US Dollar or match up with the bias of buying the US Dollar.

So really like the sort of opportunities that are happening here on Euro. We might get some kind of funky moves in terms of, we might see sort of you know, a secondary pullback and then a continuation to the downside.
But as long as we stay below this high here, I think we’re going to be all good for some further downside to EUR/USD.

Looking towards kind of the Aussie, then we’re looking for that downside. Now we’re in a position on EUR/AUD, quite a nice position to be in this one. Expecting this one to hit targets and then probably not even focus on it too much because the Euro lost some strength as well.
It may not be an area that we want to continue to take advantage of, but the weekly looks pretty good here.

One of the charts that I do like to look at, let me just bring in the heat map here also the strength and weakness chart here a second. So Aussie is looking a bit bearish. I do quite like the idea of potentially buying the Pound very short-term still.

If we’re going to a new chart and we just bring in GBP/AUD. I’m just going to put my template on the chart. What I do like about this market in particular, if I just go up to a monthly, for instance, actually just let’s stay to the weekly and just zoom out slightly.
We’ve been talking about this a few times. What I like the look of is when the RSI goes into an oversold or overbought condition on a weekly timeframe. Typically, we like to look at the reactions on the charts, and it’s quite a common pattern here that in-between sort of October or September-October and the market going into an oversold condition.
We can typically see some decent moves out of the market, and that’s what we’ve kind of seen here on GBP/AUD at the moment. The last few times that that happened we’ve seen decent rallies.

Look at the makeup of the market here. If I just bring in that monthly, for instance. I like the fact that price tried to take out this level, take out these lows.
It failed, it closed back above, monthly is now starting to push to the upside.

The daily trend not quite there yet in terms of looking for key higher highs, higher lows. But we do have the fact that prices just kind of consolidated. Looks to me like we’re in this kind of consolidation pattern now the price is breaking out.

I would like to see price takeout these highs through here, to give us an opportunity to look at some bias on a pullback because it is a decent sort of weekly area of resistance as well.
I would like to see that taken out first, but GBP/AUD could be something to watch out for.

Obviously, AUD/JPY has created a bit of a lower high here as well. See the daily time frame, pretty much remained in that downtrend. It came and retested these previous structure lows through here, started to impulse back to the downside, approaching these lows where I’d expect to see the market retest through there.
But if you look at that four-hour time frame, this is where it becomes a nice trading opportunity because we get this almost move through here.
The price changes cycle by breaking that low, it re-test structure, it then breaks re-test structure, breaks. Now we’re just kind of consolidating.
Can we get another breakout retest and trade this market to the downside?

So Aussie really looking very fragile at the moment. I like the idea of getting on the back of selling that.

AUD/USD looks good as well for a continued push down. We’re in a few trades at the moment. We don’t need to kind of add too much pressure on what we’re doing, and if we do add some positions we might close them down. But everything is looking good here for some Aussie weakness.
I like some of these charts especially AUD/USD, AUD/JPY. Euros looking good for some downside as well. Looking for that Dollar strength to impact the markets.
We’ll look for that going into next week. Hopefully, we can get some decent trading opportunities again and see how we get on.

Thanks for watching, and I’ll see you soon.

If you’re curious to trade GBP/AUD or AUS/JPY but you’re not sure enough to invest yet, you can test it out without any risk. Blueberry Markets has a free demo account with up to a $50,000 funding.  Our customer support team can help you set up your account and have you trading in minutes.


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