FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: 14th September
In this week’s Market Outlook we take a look at the #EURUSD, #AUDUSD , #GBPUSD and more!
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Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, head currency analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to go through the Forex Market Outlook. We’re going to outline a few things with regards to some strengths and weaknesses, and I’m going to go through some potential pairs of the week.
Just bringing in the strength and weakness table, we can see that the Pound has lost ground against quite a few currency pairs. It was the weakest currency of the week. We also have CAD, which was pretty weak, we have Kiwi that was strong, but we also have AUS and Kiwi at major extremes.
Potentially we could start seeing a little bit of Aussie weakness, Kiwi weakness coming into this week. Pound and CAD look to continue that weakness, although Pound is a huge weekly level, which we’ll be going to take a look at in a second. Expecting the Dollar to continue to gain strength and potentially the Yen as well. We’re looking for a bit of weakness on Aussie, Kiwi, Pound, CAD against Yen and the US Dollar.
Let’s go take a look at some of these pairs. Jumping onto GBP/USD, we spoke about the fact that the weekly would potentially come back down into these weekly highs. Now the prices at this level, I expect some kind of rebound.
Whether we get a complete rebound and the market moves back to the highest, I don’t think we’ll see that or may even drop a little bit low in the week and finish a little bit bullish for the potential for the market to drop higher then.
Because the price has moved so aggressively down, the only way I look at Pound this week is if we had a pullback. If the market had rallied at the start of the week and heads towards these previous structure points or even these lows just through here, we may get the opportunity to short the market back down to this level. However, as I said, we might get a continuation into this previous high here and then a rebound from there.
Pound for me is at a point where it could go either way it’s at a point where we’re at these weekly highs. I’m expecting some kind of bullishness out of it. We may not get a strong move going into this week, may have to be going into a sort of next week before we can predict what happens here.
But either way, had some huge downside, expecting some reaction in this zone just through here. We could even look to trade the pullback if we got some bullish candlesticks going on here, down at this key supporting zone.
Looking at other currencies, we’re looking for some downside definitely on Pound in general against the US Dollar be a little bit tricky because we’re at this weekly supporting level.
Whereas if I go to GBP/JPY for instance, the market isn’t really at any kind of key level. We’ve broken through the recent lows. All I’m going to be looking for here again is I want to be a buyer–a seller of this market on retracements. The retracement zone I’m looking at in particular is just through here where the previous structure lows are, and these lows through there. If we were to see the market pullback into this zone, we could look for a continuation, any kind of bearish rejections of this level through there.
Moving on to Aussie. Aussie’s interesting to us because it is overbought, and looks to be–I found a little bit of resistance. I’m expecting the market to drop.
Going into that daily timeframe. What do I need to see in order to even consider this? Well, unlike all other major currency pairs, we haven’t seen the Aussie change cycle yet. Technically we’re still in an uptrend. The market is making higher highs and higher lows, with this being the most recent move. Now, what we need to see is a break of lows. The current low is sitting here and here.
If the market was to break down, close below this low, I would suggest that it’s an early sign that we could start seeing further downside out of this currency pair.
If it breaks through this low here, then definitely look for that trend to change, and look for the market to break to the downside. Looking for that weakness especially, on sort of AUD/USD and AUD/JPY to come through.
Now, this could coincide, especially with kind of AUD/JPY on the fact that the S & P is closed bearish for another week. If I’m expecting that to continue and drop lower, We could even see the Yen strengthen slightly more.
AUD/JPY hasn’t followed through as the S & P has. We’ve got that weekly sort of rejection. It hasn’t changed the cycle on a daily which I would have expected it to do. Before we even consider short in this market, I’m going to look for a new daily low to form in order to be a seller, and look for the market to at least break back below this key supporting level through here. If the price does do that, then we’ve got the opportunity to try that short through this.
AUD/JPY very much on the list. Just need to wait for a change in trend in that daily time frame.
Euro was spoken about in-depth already on the Forex Market Wrap recently, just looking for the market to find and break these lows through here. If it does, then we have free round to trade it down to these lows through there.
At the moment, it’s holding quite strong above these lows. So, expecting or at least looking for a break of those loads to even consider trading in this market.
USD/CHF was selling. Obviously, nothing’s changed for us there. Go look at the Forex Market Wrap for that outlook view.
USD/CAD has closed bullish once again. I’m expecting this market to rally higher that means that we are expecting the Canadian Dollar to get weaker. I’m looking for this market to rally up.
The daily time frame has nicely kind of formed a little bit of a move just through here. Expecting that rally up towards that 1.34. This could be a really good chart to watch going into this week because what I’m going to be looking for is to continue to buy this on any decent moves.
If the market comes up, it might even drop back here, then break out and clips our tight profit. Then the next step for me is going to wait for a break and retest of this zone. If it completes that in the week, then we’re going to be looking for the market to head to that 1.34 area.
That’s what my kind of outlook is on USD/CAD. Looking we may get an early kind of pushback lower, and then a break to the upside with our targets hopefully being hit and then a move towards that 1.34 area is what I’m looking to seek out on USD/CAD.
That’s going to be our Forex Market Outlook for the week. Keep an eye on these currency pairs. My favorite pair is USD/CAD. Looking for the breakdown. AUD/USD can be on the list just waiting for that challenging trend.
Hope you’ve had a great weekend, and I’ll speak to you soon.
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