Hi guys, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to talk about the USD/JPY and why it could be a market that’s quite interesting to us at the moment.
So, what we can see here on the weekly timeframe is the fact that the markets come back down into these key supporting areas. So if I look left – this huge zone through here – where the market has been in the past, has acted as support in a number of occasions in the past and recent times as well. You can see this is all 2019, 2020, and 2018, just through here. So, the market seems to like to bounce from this level. And typically, we’ve seen the market stall and then rally back up into the 111-112. That’s a typical area where the market seems to like to go through, up there. So, essentially what I’m saying is the market is in this range between these two points. So, are we going to see that range play out once again?
If we go and look at the last time we were in and around these points, it tends to be around early this year, August, or end of the year. So, you can actually see when we were last here in August, this is the rally we had out of it. So, are we going to see that similar again?
We haven’t gone oversold on the RSI, which I thought we may have done, but we haven’t done that as we have here, but that’s the last. August is a really nice move out of that. Obviously, the US Dollar seasonally is bullish through August.
Now, if I go to that daily timeframe, typically, when I see the market come into an area of support, I do want to see what we call the change in cycle, which is the market where it forms a new high and forms a higher low.
So, you can see our low here, our higher low there, and now the market is pushing into our higher-high right now. So, I’m looking at this thinking we could start seeing the market push towards that 112 level. If we do get that confirmed close above today, what we could then look for is a move on the four-hour timeframe. There’s a decent little area, just here, where I’d expect the market to come and retest – around 106.40 or 106.50 – would be a really good area for the market to retest. So, what I’ll be looking for is a pullback in and a double bottom pattern or anything like that around this area would be good enough for me to then look for that long position. Because we’ve got the weekly, which is at a key supporting zone, which is this zone down here. We’ve got daily, which is now in an uptrend because we’re making new higher highs.
The four-hour is also in an uptrend. Can we get that pullback to support then look for that long opportunity? That’s what I’m looking for here on USD/JPY. Obviously, the JP Yen is weakening while the stock markets have continued to climb. So, this is a really interesting market to have a little look at. I like it because of this weekly area of support down here. So, take a look at this one. Keep this on your watch list and look for any pullbacks into that 106 sort of 50 levels.
Thanks for watching and I’ll catch you soon.
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