Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to look at EUR/USD. We’re going to look at: Is it time to go short on this?
We are already short on EUR/USD. But, we did a video about a week ago looking at the EUR/USD as the chart to watch, because the weekly timeframe was giving us a similar sort of set up that it is now.
Then we had the market, which was forming this bearish candlestick after rejecting these weekly highs here. And we saw that and we thought: That phase to, that retracement phase, that we’d like to see come into the market and potentially retest this structure area down here on the weekly was going to come into play.
We then saw the US Dollar dip again, which produces a weekly bullish candlestick. But early sentiment this week is that the market has already tried to breakout these highs. This gives us a false break out to the upside, and it looks to be now shaping up the way we want to see it shape up.
If we’re going to continue to look for that move down, however, we need to see a few things out of this market, if we’re expecting the market to come down into this area.
What I’d be looking for is the daily to start down-trending towards this point. So if I go to the daily time frame, right now, we have the market making this consolidation pattern where we’re making higher highs, we’re also making higher lows. We’re not making clear higher highs and there’s no real close above the previous structure points. But nonetheless, we’re still moving to the upside.
Now we’ve looked at this as the false breakout with the market rallying up, forming this nice bearish wick candle – looking for that market to now move to the downside.
So, if we are going to get this point and we need that US Dollar to really start to find some strength and the only way we’ll see that is if we do get a break and close below these lows. Because otherwise, what we may actually get is a push towards it and then a rejection of that. If we do get a rejection, the market is likely to stay within this channel. However, strength and weakness analysis has been telling us for a while now that we should be looking for US Dollar buying opportunities, and EUR/USD is in a perfect position for that.
What I want to see next out of EUR/USD is a move towards these lows here. Obviously, our targets as well, and if the market does break and gives you two confirmed closes below this low, then that would be a confirmed break of that low, and we could look for a continuation of EUR/USD coming back into this level through here.
So, last week, we talked about its potential moves forming into the downside and didn’t quite get it. Hopefully, we do get it this week, and if we do get that break and close below, look for further downside, and look for that US Dollar strength to re-enter the market.
Thanks for watching this video update. I’ll catch you soon.
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