The #USDCAD reversal has been on our watchlist for some time.
Now the retracement move is in play what are they short-term levels to be aware of
and how can we best use them?
Watch the video to learn more…
Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to take a look at USD/CAD.
We looked at this market in the Forex Market Outlook and what we were looking at in particular, was the fact that the price had started to reverse on this weekly timeframe.
We were watching because we had this nice little bullish candlestick setup in line with the market going into an oversold condition. So, we had that then we saw this. Now, when we get these moves, we get a little bit of pullback. We looked at the fact that last time we saw this move into these lows through here, the market impulses to the downside. So, I’m looking for a similar pullback. Now, we have retested this wick lower through here. I’m expecting either a jump back up into the 1.31 area up into the 1.3313 because this was the most traded area of this impulse to the downside. So I was looking for the price to come and retest that structure point. So, I still feel like USD/CAD has a few legs in it to the upside.
We looked at then was going into that four-hour timeframe, the most traded area of last week was this 1.2852 level, through here. Typically, when you find these most traded areas, the price is attracted to these points, and we can see already that the market has bounced a couple of times from this area this week, so far. Now looking at the market structure, we’re in this heavy downtrend, and then the market trend changes by breaking out of this range. The price has come back down, and it’s creating this shelf for itself. There’s an opportunity here to look for potential breaks above this 1.2852. If the price trade goes back up of 1.2852, I’ll be looking for the price to break and retest that area for some further long opportunities. If the price continues to fall away, we have the previous week’s area of 1.2750 as an area of support. Still, I’d rather it be last week’s area support because if the price does start trending towards this area, it will take out last week’s candlestick low. That’s not usually a good sign for the markets.
What I’d like to see is for the price to break above this 1.2852. We’ve been close to it. We’ve reached a couple of times from it already early this week. So if we can start breaking above that point, it’d look really good for some long opportunities. We could even drop into the hourly timeframe and see how the price is reacting at the lows. So at the moment, we are getting a reaction down at this area where the markets broken up higher, come back in. We’ve got a couple of wicks to the downside.
If we were to start seeing that US Dollar seasonal play towards the end of the year, start coming a little bit earlier on USD/CAD, I’d expect the breakout to the upside here.
Keep an eye on USD/CAD – it’s really on my watch list this week. I also quite like Swiss Franc pairs, they’ve seen a lot of weakness shining through at the moment. But, USD/CAD looks good if we were to get that breakout to the upside. So, keep an eye on that one.
If you have any questions, let me know in the comment section below, and I’ll speak to you soon.
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