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FOREX Chart Of The Day: USD Seasonal Analysis

Can seasonality reports give us a clue to the moves on the USD index this month?
 
As the USD continues to consolidate we take a look at the #USDindex seasonal reports to see if the major currency finds a low through the month.
 
Watch the video to learn more…

Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, head currency analyst. 

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In this video, we’re going to go over a few Dollar pairs as we’re looking for the potential upside to the US Dollar.

In front of me, I’ve got the seasonal chart for the US Dollar. Typically through September, we can see here that the market finds a low and rallies quite significantly until sort of the middle to end of November.

If that’s the case, then we can look for the potential for the market to start reversing because what we have seen from the Dollar recently is that it’s consolidating. 

And the fact that we’ve been monitoring it on the strength and weakness analysis, suggesting that it isn’t in an extreme oversold condition and that we should be looking for reversals on the Dollar.

What we can see here is we have the seasonality inline the strength and weakness suggesting we look for reversals and the fact that the match currency pairs are starting to consolidate. So, we have something to go off with that.

Looking at EUR/USD, we’re still in our EUR/USD trade at the moment. As it currently stands, the price is moving towards the downside. Obviously, the US session hasn’t come in just yet.

Waiting for that to come in. But, essentially we’ve had this consolidation pattern, and we’re still looking for the market to break through these lows.

We spoke about this on a number of videos now, and we’re just waiting for that to happen. If that happens, then we’re looking for that trend condition to the downside. We can see, if we just go to the weekly time frame again, another bearish close and overbought condition on the weekly does typically lead to a little bit of downside. 

 

So just being really patient here. Let’s see if we can break those lows in order to continue to look for those shorting opportunities.

 

Quite like USD/CHF as well. Again, EUR/USD, USD/CHF kind of in line with each other The majority of the time. I can see that the only difference here is that USD/CHF has already kind-of broken out of the consolidation and is currently just seen around these previous structure highs through there.

In order for me to be a real confident buyer of the Dollar, we know we’re in a couple of Dollar pairs at the moment, but I want to see that really big rally out of this.

I want to see those highs being formed because that will give us an opportunity to then look for the changing trend on a longer-term rather than looking more in the short term at the moment.

Let’s see if we can break this high here on USD/CHFas well for further opportunities.

 

USD/CAD as well still consolidating at the bottom. Weekly formed a bit of an indecision week after it retraced to these lows. The four-hour time frame has a changing cycle. The market came back in, re-tested this area here, and it’s continuing to sort of push to the upside now.

But again, we need to see those higher highers continue out of this market to really be in on that Dollar. 

So, keep an eye on the US Dollar index. You can also if you don’t have access to the US Dollar index. You can have a look at EUR/USD. It’s just the inverse of that market. So, if the US Dollar is going to get stronger, would see the EUR/USD breakthrough these lows here.

This is going to be the key-point to the Dollar strength coming back in. September typically does see a low in the US Dollar. So, hopefully, we see that, and the market does start pushing in our favor.

 

Thanks for watching this video update, and I’ll catch you in the next one.

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