Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, head currency analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to go over GBP/USD. I like the opportunities here for some downsides. She’ll break this market down and see what we expect to see in this market.
Looking at GBP/USD, we’ve recently come up into these highs around about the one sort of 1.34 area. The market has rejected, forming this nice bearish close just through here. Expected some downsides to come from that. Obviously, In the Forex Market Outlook.
We even spoke about the fact that it could pull back down into these daily highs, where we then could see a bit of a double top form or something like that. Instead, prices continue to the downside.
Lots of Brexit negotiations going on at the moment. Lots of Brexit talk and chatter, which is what’s causing this bearish move and to the downside.
We can see here on the weekly time frame we’re in that overbought condition on the RSI. The market’s pushing to the downside. Where could price end up? I do like the idea of Pound coming back into these highs just through here.
Hang on a minute, have to delete that and redo that. Coming back down into these previous highs around about the 1.28 area is where I’m expecting the Pound to head to now.
We’re just hovering above 1.29 at the moment. I’m looking for that downside to continue into these highs.
If you look at the daily time frame, we’ve had a change in trend on the daily time frame because the price has broken through and gives us two consecutive closes below this low. That allows me to then look for short opportunities to continue.
There are one or two ways that could happen. The price could then rally up into a resistance level and then look to move back to the downside or the price could fall straight towards that.
At the moment, the Pound is very weak, so we’re seeing that move continues to the downside currently.
Looking at the four-hour time frame, a lot to identify then the four-hour trend and see where we could be expecting the market to go to. Because the Pound is so weak, we’ve had a very shallow retracement. You can see here the two retracements that we’ve had.
So far has been very shallow, which shows us how weak this market is. There’s a little bit of a kind of area that I like the look at through here. Around about the 1.2970, there’s a little bit of a shelf there, where the market has kind of formed a double top and broken through.
What I’m expecting really out of this market is a potential for the market to pull back into this area and continue down. Or we’re going to see kind of one or two things happen: A break of these lows through here.
The market’s going to hit our zone, come back up. We could get on a short trade here and then look for the move to the downside there. Or you could even look for just a strategic move, which for me would be on this sort of 15-minute time frame.
Looking for the changes in simplicity. You can see here, the market came up broke to the downside, closed below. That would have been a good trading opportunity for me. Stop-loss is above the highs, looking for that market to drop to the downside, and again you could look at that similar tomorrow.
If the market continues to give us this bearish move, have a look to see if we get a nice break and re-test. What I’ll be looking for here is even a break and retest of these 15-minute lows retest and continue to the downside.
Two different kinds of ways you could look at a trade-in Pound. But to me, this is looking very bearish. We’re looking for that downside to continue towards that 1.28 area. Expect that bearishness to continue and follow through for a while.
Keep an eye on this. If you have any opportunities on this, look for the short trade. I’ll speak to you in the next video.
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