Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, head currency analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to go through NZD/JPY. I really like the potential opportunity of this market. I’m also going to cover a little bit of the strength and weakness table as I didn’t get a chance to do that in yesterday’s video. Hopefully, the audio is a lot better today, apologies, like yesterday. I was working on kind of my remote system rather than my home system. So hopefully, the audio is a lot better.
But anyway, so USD/CAD has actually just hit targets. We’re in a USD/CAD move, so I’m just going to quickly just look at this. We’ve bought USD/CAD twice. The first move was down in here, off of this high through there. We placed our stop losses below the low, and we targeted just through here, which hit nicely. We just looked to do the exact same thing again, this time we went a little bit closer to the price action instead of buying the high through here.
We bought the opens and closes there’s a lot of action going on around that area. We bought that through there, placed our stop losses below the swing lows, targeted up just past the highs through there, which has just come in and hit those targets, which is brilliant to see. Obviously, expecting that to continue to and kind of roll through as I’m expecting risk currencies to continue to sort of move lower.
The reason I’m expecting those risk currencies to move lower it’s because of what’s happening on the stock markets at the moment. So this Is the S&P on the daily time frame, it went to a weekly time frame. I’m expecting the market to drop a little bit lower into this zone through here. That’s going to put pressure on our currencies in terms of our risk currencies.
Sorry forgot the word, then our risk currencies. So that’s going to be the Australian Dollar, Kiwi, and CAD. Those are really going to feel the effects of the stock markets moving to the downside. Yen and Dollar should gain strength through this sort of period that we’re seeing here, with the markets making lower lows and things like that.
If the markets are continuing to do this, what we can expect is a breakdown continuation, and that kind of leads me on to that NZD/JPY outlook.
I like this because we’re starting to see a bit of a change in cycle on the daily time frame. So, it’s currently breaking through these lows through here. If the market was to give us a nice close below that low, I would expect a further continuation to the downside.
Let’s take a look at this on a lower time frame. So if I jump into the four-hour time frame, we can see we’ve actually had two confirmed closes below these lows through here, which is what I typically like to see. Well, not too confirmed just yet. Sorry I need another one. But, we’ve had our first sort of confirmed lower low, lower close candlestick. What I do when I’m looking for those changes in trend, I want to see two confirmed lows because that negates the effects of a potential false breakout, and the market moving back to the upside.
But, looking at this really great level. If I pop that up there on the daily for a second to go back down to the four-hour, we can see that the market has found some decent support around this area recently, and even a little bit of resistance just back here.
So, I’m looking for the potential downside to continue here. I’m not looking for any dramatic stuff, not looking for any huge moves to the downside. Just maybe a re-test of these kinds of lows at the moment when the market seems to be kind of pushing towards.
But, that will give us a couple of opportunities on the way down. So, if you do get a second lower low, lower close candle, or just a close below these lows through here, that’ll give me the confidence to look for those short opportunities on pullbacks.
So, if I actually bring in the reason as well why we’re looking for this, in particular, is the fact that–just bringing in the strength from weakness table– we can see that the Kiwi remains at plus seven. Now, when I see these things, I’m expecting a potential reversal to those currencies.
We’ve currently seen a bit of reversal to the Australian trend, which we spoke about, I believe last week. Looking for that to follow through as well. But, Kiwi is a good focal point as well. What I like to do then is if I’m expecting a reversal on that currency, I’ll look for stronger ones to trade it against.
So NZD/USD looking pretty good, but NZD/JPY is actually starting to make some potential lower lows just over here, which is even better. Once we get that, look for the pullback. Look for the continuation down in line with the potential reversal that we’re going to be seeing on Kiwi.
So, I’m gonna leave it there. Thanks for watching this video update. Hopefully, it was better audio and things like that, and if you enjoyed this video, please give it a thumbs up and, I’ll speak to you in the next one. Cheers guys.
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