Do you trade from major swing levels?
EURCHF could be the forex pair to watch.
The price has recently rejected a major swing level and could change trends.
Watch the video to find out more…
Hi and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to take a look at EUR/CHF. We’re looking to get short on this market as we have hit a really huge level.
So just looking left, there’s a massive, massive level on EUR/CHF that has been tested a number of times. We can see the market at least ten times recently, not counting the big spike, through here. The market has hit this level, rejected it, then we saw that happen again, and this coincided with the US Dollar index hitting that 92 US Dollar level and continuing to hit that level bounce away from it. That coincided with this move that we saw yesterday across a lot of currencies, where we had a bit of a rally throughout the day.
But that US Dollar weakness came in as soon as the US session or towards the end of the session. We saw a lot of US Dollar strength re-enter the market from that 92 level on the US Dollar index. That’s what’s caused a lot of markets to start turning now, we can see here a really nice bearish candle. What I like most about this was that it was a little false breakout to the downside. So we had a breakout here, which a lot of people might consider that as a buying opportunity. You can actually go to a four-hour timeframe. There’s a nice little box range that would have been looked at by a lot of traders, and a lot of people have gone great box range, break outlook for the retest, and buy. Those people that are buying in here would be on the wrong side of the market and I think they’re going to start on the wrong side. I think a lot of people would be long stops below these lows. So I’d expect the market to head towards these lows, through here, and break to the downside because of that daily analysis.
Even if I go to a weekly timeframe and just zoom right in, you can see a huge level, a really nice wick to the upside. We’re expecting this market to drop a little bit lower.
Now, just going into that four-hour timeframe. Typically, when I see these daily rejections, what I really really want to see is a four-hour challenging trend. That’s what really confirms these breakouts to me, and we can see, here, that the market has rallied up, pulled back, and now we’re starting to break those lows. I’d like to see the market create a little bit of distance between this low to look for either further shorting opportunities or to let this one play out fully.
So, we’re keeping a good eye on this one. I want to see the market push a little bit lower. But, that range on this four-hour timeframe has broken into a false breakout, these often lead to further downsides.
So, keep an eye on your EUR/CHF. I’m expecting some further moves here, and I hope you enjoyed the content this week and I’ll speak to you soon.
We hope our forex chart of the day analysis helps you in your trades. Practice trading the EUR/CHF pair with up to $50,000 when you sign up for a free demo account at Blueberry Markets.