Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, Head Currency Analyst.
In this video, we’ll go through AUD/USD and see what’s happening.
In the Forex Market Wrap, I explained that I’d be leaving this trade open. This is because the market was untriggered. I still want to be short on AUD/USD. I wanted to leave that position. It’s been triggered, currently running in 20 pips of profit if you drop further, but it has come back slightly.
Essentially, I still want to be short on this market because that weekly timeframe is looking bearish after it rejected this previous high. We were in that overbought condition, but now, we’re looking for that turn to continue and retest this level here.
I also like the position because of the daily timeframe. The price came back down and put in a daily bearish close. When the price does that, I want to look for short opportunities the next day, and I like the fact that it has retraced and hit this previous structure area and started to reject it down. I quite like the idea of continuing to look for those shorts on AUD/USD.
Ideally, I’d like to have seen a bit of a change in cycle at the moment. The four-hour looks like this with a higher high, but ideally, I would want to see another low come in for the price to make another lower low, and then look for the continuation down.
But, we can’t control the market. It’s going to do whatever it wants to do. We’ll just have to look to see if that can continue down.
If you are looking to get into AUD/USD, wait for a break of this low first, then look to get in on the price action because the four-hour trend would agree with our overall bias on that daily timeframe.
The hourly chart is looking a bit stuck again – nothing is going on. In the 15-minute chart, I quite like it here since it’s showing an early sign of a move. You’ve got a breakdown: it rallies up, retested this area of structure, and now it’s starting to push to the downside again.
If you are looking for a potential position, you could wait for the lower high here to come into play and then look for that trade to the downside there.
But I do like that AUD/USD move to the downside still.
The 5-minute timeframe is changing in cycle as well. It’s all pointing in the right direction. For those looking to trade that four-hour trend, I’d want to wait for more confirmation. Wait for that lower low and for the pullback into these key areas.
But, AUD/USD is still looking to push to the downside according to our strength and weakness analysis. I’m waiting for that to play out while keeping an eye on the four-hour timeframe. We’re going to wait for that change in cycle.
Thanks for watching this video update, and I’ll speak to you soon. Cheers!
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