Hi, and welcome to this Blueberry Markets video update with me, John Kibbler, head currency analyst.
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In this video, we’re going to take a look at AUD/USD as price approaches a key resistance level. Just take a look at this daily time frame, we’ve been looking for the market to continue to push lower, but what we were looking for was price come and retest these previous daily structure lows, and we can see that today has rallied up into this level. Really nice psychological level as well of 0.200, nice whole number.
Looking for the market to react from this area and continue the downtrend towards the back or backward 0.7 and these recent swing lows through here. Now the price has approached this level. What we typically want to look for is a nice daily bearish close from that level, so what I would anticipate happening here is one or two things.
If you’re looking at the end of the day situations, maybe wait for the price to break through the level close back below give us a nice daily bearish candlestick which we can then look to short to the downside into these lows or what I like to wait for is a change of cycle on a lower time frame.
If I just actually go into the four-hour timeframe we can see that price is trending back to the upside because we’re in that sort of retracement phase at the moment.
I typically like to see the four-hour challenge cycle, which gives a little bit of a level just through here where you can see price found resistance and then support.
What I’d like to see is a price breakthrough that low and then forms a lower low-level close. Re-test and then see the market continue to the downside.
What we can also look for here are reversal patterns. So anything such as head and shoulders patterns, which could look something like this with the left shoulder, head right shoulder coming in at the left shoulder resistance. Or we could look for a nice double top pattern surprise, could pull back in and rally back up and retest that 0.7200 level. Break to the downside and see that move there. But ultimately, what I’d like to see is a change cycle on the four-hour time frame to look for continuations of the daily downtrend.
That’s what I’m going to be looking through here on Aussie. Price back in the zone, looking good for sure and opportunities. If we did want to get a little bit earlier, you could go to an hourly time frame and look for the hourly change in the trend, which is just through here. And the price could be finding some resistance there.
We do have a little bit of RSI divergence as well, where price has formed the higher high, and the RSI has formed a lower high. So we could anticipate the market breaking out retesting and continuing down there.
If you want to look for a bit of an earlier opportunity, I’m personally going to wait for that daily bearish close or that four-hour changing cycle just down here, to then look for the continuation short on the AUD/USD. But the price is in the zone now.
Keep it on your watch list, let’s see how this one plays out.
Thanks for watching this video update, and I’ll catch you on the next one.
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